Development of a digital twin of a network of heating systems for smart cities on the example of the city of Almaty

Abstract

In this paper, a digital twin of the network of heating systems for smart cities is developed using the example of the city of Almaty. The study used machine learning algorithms to estimate future thermal energy consumption and develop thermodynamic formulas. This work offers a thorough and in-depth analysis of thermal energy consumption. In addition, the paper identifies the relationship between thermal energy consumption and ambient temperature, and wind uncertainty in certain urban areas using machine learning methods to predict thermal energy consumption. Using both training and regression models, this interdependence is revealed. The obtained forecasts provide useful information for studying the structure of heat consumption in Almaty and reducing heat losses by reducing overheating in the zones of heating networks. In addition, the study analyzes high-resolution spatial data collected from 385 homes and 62 heat transfer circuits located throughout the city during the heating season. The study examines the degree of relationship between the ambient temperature and the amount of heat energy used in the areas of Astana. A minor impact of wind speed is also estimated. These discoveries allow us to use machine learning algorithms to find the location of hot spots and inefficient zones with high losses.