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The Effect Prediction of Planting Area Expansion Policy on Rice Production

AGRIVITA, Journal of Agricultural Science · Vol. 48 No. 1 (2026) · hlm. 1–15

DOI
10.17503/agrivita.v48i1.5029
ISSN
2477-8516, 0126-0537
Terbit
2026-01-06
Penerbit
Faculty of Agriculture University of Brawijaya in collaboration with PERAGI
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Abstrak

Ministry of Agriculture has established the Planting Area Expansion (called PAT) Program to increase rice production by expanding the harvest area. The study used a time-series analysis approach with the structured vector autoregressive (SVAR) method with monthly data for the period January 1993-March 2025. The results of the analysis show that rice production in 2025 is estimated to reach 58.43 million tons of milled dry grain, an increase of 5.29 million tons (9.95%) compared to production in 2024, as a contribution of the program to expand the planting area and land optimalization (known as OPLAH), irrigation development, pump and pipeline installation, new rice field cultivation of 1.62 million tons or 30.56 percent, worth IDR 12.58 trillion. Three main recommendations are as follows: (1) the performance of water pump and OPLAH assistance in 2024 should be ensured to proceed in 2025, and OPLAH as well as new rice field development in 2025 should be ensured to be fully realized, with some of the new rice fields already able to be planted with rice; (2) controlling the rate of rice field conversion to maintain the availability of rice cultivation land; and (3) optimizing farmer assistance by field agricultural extension workers.

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  • Hasanuddin University
  • Ministry of Agriculture
  • University of Mataram
  • Addis Ababa University
  • University of Colombo
  • National Agricultural Research Center
  • Saga University
  • Organisasi lain
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Organisasi berbeda
  • Organisasi sama
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Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Muhammad ArsyadHasanuddin University3
Achmad AmiruddinHasanuddin University3
Jasmal A. SyamsuHasanuddin University3
Lellah RahimHasanuddin University3
Sitti Nurani SirajuddinHasanuddin University3
Budiman NohongHasanuddin University3
Musran MunizuHasanuddin University3
Muhammad Hatta JamilHasanuddin University3
Abdel Razzaq Mohammad Al-TawahaNational Agricultural Research Center3
Siti NurlaelahHasanuddin University3
Asmiaty SahurHasanuddin University2
Rio Akbar RahmatullahHasanuddin University2
Kanazawa YunaSaga University2
Mathurada KeelaNational Chung Hsing University2
malik abd malik ash shiddieqyAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Sylvia SjamHasanuddin University1
Putri Ayuni AchmadAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Yunus MusaHasanuddin University1
Chita VionandaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Kaimuddin KaimuddinHasanuddin University1
Mahmud Saputra IshakAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Elkawakib Syam’unHasanuddin University1
Cici Nur MaghfirahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Muh. Idil FitriAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Temesgen Tilahun TeshomeAddis Ababa University1
B. NishantaUniversity of Colombo1
Muhammad RidwanChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences1
Abd. Haris BahrunHasanuddin University1
Ayu Anisa AmirHasanuddin University1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://agrivita.ub.ac.id/index.php/agrivita/oai, pertama di-harvest 8 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">The Effect Prediction of Planting Area Expansion Policy on Rice Production</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Sulaiman, Andi Amran</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Setiyanto, Adi</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Basit, Abdul</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Sinuraya, Julia Forcina</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Hermawan, Hari</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nida, Fajri Shoutun</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Astari, Annisa Fauzia</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Mardianto, Sudi</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Bahrun, Abd Haris</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Arsyad, Muhammad</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Raisa, Daeva Mubarika</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US"></dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Agricultural Policy; PAT Program; Rice; SVAR</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Ministry of Agriculture has established the Planting Area Expansion (called PAT) Program to increase rice production by expanding the harvest area. The study used a time-series analysis approach with the structured vector autoregressive (SVAR) method with monthly data for the period January 1993-March 2025. The results of the analysis show that rice production in 2025 is estimated to reach 58.43 million tons of milled dry grain, an increase of 5.29 million tons (9.95%) compared to production in 2024, as a contribution of the program to expand the planting area and land optimalization (known as OPLAH), irrigation development, pump and pipeline installation, new rice field cultivation of 1.62 million tons or 30.56 percent, worth IDR 12.58 trillion. Three main recommendations are as follows: (1) the performance of water pump and OPLAH assistance in 2024 should be ensured to proceed in 2025, and OPLAH as well as new rice field development in 2025 should be ensured to be fully realized, with some of the new rice fields already able to be planted with rice; (2) controlling the rate of rice field conversion to maintain the availability of rice cultivation land; and (3) optimizing farmer assistance by field agricultural extension workers.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Faculty of Agriculture University of Brawijaya in collaboration with PERAGI</dc:publisher>
	<dc:contributor xml:lang="en-US"></dc:contributor>
	<dc:date>2026-01-06</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://agrivita.ub.ac.id/index.php/agrivita/article/view/5029</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.17503/agrivita.v48i1.5029</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">AGRIVITA Journal of Agricultural Science; Vol 48, No 1 (2026); 1-15</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2477-8516</dc:source>
	<dc:source>0126-0537</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.17503/agrivita.v48i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://agrivita.ub.ac.id/index.php/agrivita/article/view/5029/1949</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2026 The Author(s)</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0</dc:rights>
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