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Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Analysis to Predict Completion Time and Project Risk Using Discrete Event System Simulation Method

CommIT (Communication and Information Technology) Journal · Vol. 18 No. 1 (2024) · hlm. 67–76

DOI
10.21512/commit.v18i1.8495
ISSN
2460-7010, 1979-2484
Terbit
2024-04-29
Penerbit
Bina Nusantara University
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstrak

The prediction of project completion time, which is important in project management, is only based on an estimate of three numbers, namely the fastest, slowest, and presumably time. The common practice of applying normal distribution through Monte Carlo simulation in Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) research often fails to accurately represent project activity durations, leading to potentially biased project completion prediction. Based on these problems, a different method is proposed, namely, Discrete Event Simulation (DES). The research aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the simmer package in R in conducting PERT analysis. Specifically, there are three objectives in the research: 1) develop a simulation model to predict how long a project will take and find the critical path, 2) create an R script to simulate discrete events on a PERT network, and 3) explore the simulation output using the simmer package in the form of summary statistics and estimation of project risk. Then, a library research with a descriptive and exploratory method is used for data collection. The hypothetical network is used to obtain the numerical results, which provide the predicted value of the project completion, the critical path, and the risk level. Simulation, including 100 replications, results in a predicted project completion time and a standard deviation of 20.7 and 2.2 weeks, respectively. The DES method has been proven highly effective in predicting the completion time of a project described by the PERT network. In addition, it offers increased flexibility.

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  • Universitas Ahmad Dahlan
  • Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Binus University
  • Universitas Islam Negeri K.H. Abdurrahman Wahid Pekalongan
  • Universiti Malaysia Terengganu
  • Hasanuddin University
  • Pelita Harapan University
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Nerru Pranuta MurnakaAfiliasi tidak diketahui4
Muhammad Amien IbrahimAfiliasi tidak diketahui4
Samsul ArifinAfiliasi tidak diketahui4
Samsul ArifinHasanuddin University2
Umi MahmudahUniversitas Islam Negeri K.H. Abdurrahman Wahid Pekalongan1
Muhamad Safiih LolaUniversiti Malaysia Terengganu1
Sugiyarto SuronoUniversitas Ahmad Dahlan1
Annisa Eka HaryatiUniversitas Ahmad Dahlan1
Danang Teguh QoiyyimiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Shafira Fauzia UntsaUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Dwi ErtiningsihUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Kie Van Ivanky SaputraPelita Harapan University1
Muhammad ArdiyansyahUniversity of Jyväskylä1
Jayrold P. ArcedeAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Hadi SusantoNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Utti Marina RifantiInstitut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto1
Lina AryatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.binus.ac.id/index.php/commit/oai, pertama di-harvest 8 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Analysis to Predict Completion Time and Project Risk Using Discrete Event System Simulation Method</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Yudistira, I Gusti Agung Anom</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nariswari, Rinda</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Arifin, Samsul</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Abdillah, Abdul Azis</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Prasetyo, Puguh Wahyu</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Susyanto, Nanang</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Completion Time</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Project Risk</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Discrete Event System Simulation</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The prediction of project completion time, which is important in project management, is only based on an estimate of three numbers, namely the fastest, slowest, and presumably time. The common practice of applying normal distribution through Monte Carlo simulation in Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) research often fails to accurately represent project activity durations, leading to potentially biased project completion prediction. Based on these problems, a different method is proposed, namely, Discrete Event Simulation (DES). The research aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the simmer package in R in conducting PERT analysis. Specifically, there are three objectives in the research: 1) develop a simulation model to predict how long a project will take and find the critical path, 2) create an R script to simulate discrete events on a PERT network, and 3) explore the simulation output using the simmer package in the form of summary statistics and estimation of project risk. Then, a library research with a descriptive and exploratory method is used for data collection. The hypothetical network is used to obtain the numerical results, which provide the predicted value of the project completion, the critical path, and the risk level. Simulation, including 100 replications, results in a predicted project completion time and a standard deviation of 20.7 and 2.2 weeks, respectively. The DES method has been proven highly effective in predicting the completion time of a project described by the PERT network. In addition, it offers increased flexibility.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Bina Nusantara University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-04-29</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.binus.ac.id/index.php/commit/article/view/8495</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.21512/commit.v18i1.8495</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">CommIT (Communication and Information Technology) Journal; Vol. 18 No. 1 (2024): CommIT Journal ; 67-76</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2460-7010</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1979-2484</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.binus.ac.id/index.php/commit/article/view/8495/5063</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2024 I Gusti Agung Anom Yudistira, Rinda Nariswari, Samsul Arifin, Abdul Azis Abdillah, Puguh Wahyu Prasetyo, Nanang Susyanto</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>