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How Many Can You Infect? Simple (and Naive) Methods of Estimating the Reproduction Number

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences · Vol. 3 No. 1 (2020) · hlm. 28–36

DOI
10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.4
ISSN
2549-2896
Terbit
2020-06-22
Penerbit
The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There are generally two types of such a number, i.e., basic and effective (or instantaneous). While basic reproduction number is the average expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible, effective reproduction number is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population. In this paper, we exploit the deterministic susceptibleinfected-removed (SIR) model to estimate them through three different numerical approximations. We apply the methods to the pandemic COVID-19 in Italy to provide insights into the spread of the disease in the country. We see that the effect of the national lockdown in slowing down the disease exponential growth appearedabout two weeks after the implementation date. We also discuss available improvements to the simple (and naive) methods that have been made by researchers in the field. Authors of this paper are members of the SimcovID (Simulasi dan Pemodelan COVID-19 Indonesia) collaboration.

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  • Bandung Institute of Technology
  • Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
  • University of Essex
  • University of Brawijaya
  • Khalifa University of Science and Technology
  • Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • University of Oxford
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Kamal Khairudin SukandarBandung Institute of Technology6
Yuki Novia NasutionMulawarman University5
Muhammad FakhruddinBandung Institute of Technology4
Endah PutriAfiliasi tidak diketahui4
WidyastutiAfiliasi tidak diketahui4
Dila PuspitaBandung Institute of Technology4
Edy SoewonoBandung Institute of Technology3
Mochamad ApriBandung Institute of Technology2
Yenie SyukriyahBandung Institute of Technology2
Moch. Taufik HakikiInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Aimmatul Ummah AlfajriyahInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Daryono Budi UtomoInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Mia Siti KhumaerohSunan Gunung Djati State Islamic University Bandung1
Ilham Saiful FauziBandung Institute of Technology1
Karunia Putra WijayaUniversity of Koblenz and Landau1
Nicola WalkerCentre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science1
Michael SteinkeUniversity of Essex1
Edward A. CodlingUniversity of Essex1
Hasan S. PanigoroState University of Gorontalo1
Agus SuryantoUniversity of Brawijaya1
İsnani DartiUniversity of Brawijaya1
Vania Mene RisrianiBandung Institute of Technology1
Tjandra AnggraeniBandung Institute of Technology1
Glenn Lahodny Jr.Afiliasi tidak diketahui1
Anita TriskaPadjadjaran University1
Mona ZevikaBandung Institute of Technology1
. FaridaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
. SudirmanAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Hilda FahlenaBandung Institute of Technology1
Widya OktavianaBandung Institute of Technology1
NadiaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Afdol ZikriBandung Institute of Technology1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/oai, pertama di-harvest 8 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">How Many Can You Infect? Simple (and Naive) Methods of Estimating the Reproduction Number</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Susanto, H.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Tjahjono, V.R.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Hasan, A.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Kasim, M.F.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nuraini, N.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Putri, E.R.M.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Kusdiantara, R.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Kurniawan, H.</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Reproduction number</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">infectious disease</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">compartment model</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">COVID-19</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There are generally two types of such a number, i.e., basic and effective (or instantaneous). While basic reproduction number is the average expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible, effective reproduction number is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population. In this paper, we exploit the deterministic susceptibleinfected-removed (SIR) model to estimate them through three different numerical approximations. We apply the methods to the pandemic COVID-19 in Italy to provide insights into the spread of the disease in the country. We see that the effect of the national lockdown in slowing down the disease exponential growth appearedabout two weeks after the implementation date. We also discuss available improvements to the simple (and naive) methods that have been made by researchers in the field. Authors of this paper are members of the SimcovID (Simulasi dan Pemodelan COVID-19 Indonesia) collaboration.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2020-06-22</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/13808</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.4</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Communication in Biomathematical Sciences; Vol. 3 No. 1 (2020); 28-36</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2549-2896</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/13808/4791</dc:relation>
</oai_dc:dc>