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Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

Pemodelan Transmisi COVID-19 dan Evaluasi Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar di Jakarta, Indonesia

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences · Vol. 5 No. 1 (2022) · hlm. 90–100

DOI
10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1.6
ISSN
2549-2896
Terbit
2022-08-02
Penerbit
The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0

Abstrak

This paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by Rt < 1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.

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  • National Research and Innovation Agency
  • State University of Semarang
  • Universitas Halu Oleo
  • Bandung Institute of Technology
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Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Muhammad FakhruddinAfiliasi tidak diketahui4
Mochamad ApriBandung Institute of Technology4
KhumaediState University of Semarang3
Edy SoewonoAfiliasi tidak diketahui3
Dwi YuliantiState University of Semarang2
Suharto LinuwihAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Ani RusilowatiState University of Semarang2
Susilo SusiloAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Fianti FiantiAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Putut MarwotoState University of Semarang2
Ismi LutfinurAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Akbari Indra BasukiNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Didi RosiyadiNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Iwan Rizal SetiawanNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Taufik Ibnu SalimNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Resman ResmanAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Sahta GintingUniversitas Halu Oleo1
Sitti LeomoUniversitas Halu Oleo1
Namriah NamriahUniversitas Halu Oleo1
DARWIS DARWISAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Enis NurnawatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Yunita Putri SuyantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Fathur RohimAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
EllianawatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Rina Dewi HapsariAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
ErnawatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ngurah Made D. PutraAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Atiko Marta PutriAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Siti KhanafiahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
KhanifahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
- MalindaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

Afiliasi berasal dari OpenAlex; metadata OAI-PMH jurnal tidak memuatnya. Penulis tanpa ID OpenAlex dicocokkan berdasarkan nama, sehingga dua orang bisa tergabung atau satu orang bisa terpisah.

Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/oai, pertama di-harvest 8 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:title xml:lang="id-ID">Pemodelan Transmisi COVID-19 dan Evaluasi Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar di Jakarta, Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Hasan, Agus</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nasution, Yuki</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Hadi Susanto</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Endah Putri</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Venansius Tjahjono</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Dila Puspita</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Kamal Sukandar</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nuning Nuraini</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Widyastuti</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Compartmental model</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">reproduction number</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">infectious diseases</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">92B99</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">34L99</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">65P99</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">This paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by Rt &amp;lt; 1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2022-08-02</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/17778</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1.6</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Communication in Biomathematical Sciences; Vol. 5 No. 1 (2022); 90-100</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2549-2896</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/17778/5891</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2022 Communication in Biomathematical Sciences</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>