Melola Discovery

← Melola Discovery

Akses terbuka Jurnal SINTA 1

Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Control for Nipah Virus Outbreak

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences · Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026) · hlm. 68–85

DOI
10.5614/cbms.2026.9.1.5
ISSN
2549-2896
Terbit
2026-06-09
Penerbit
The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0

Abstrak

Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic pathogen capable of causing outbreaks with high mortality rates, ranging from 40% to 75%. The virus spreads through direct contact between humans and infected animals, consumption of contaminated food, and human-to-human transmission. As no vaccine or specific treatment is currently available, effective control measures must rely on public health policies. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to examine the transmission dynamics of the Nipah virus. We calculate the basic reproduction number R0 as an indicator of disease spread, perform a sensitivity analysis of key model parameters, and evaluate the effectiveness of three control strategies: health campaigns targeting exposed individuals, quarantine of infected individuals, and treatment to increase the recovery rate. The objective is to minimize both the number of exposed and infected individuals and the overall cost of implementing these controls. The model used is a compartmental framework dividing the human population into five subgroups: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), recovered (R), and deceased (D). To identify the optimal intervention strategy, we apply the Pontryagin Maximum Principle (PMP), and the resulting optimality system is solved numerically using the Forward–Backward Sweep method. The results show that the effective contact rate, incubation period, and treatment rate are the most influential parameters in determining disease transmission. Sensitivity analysis indicates that reducing R0 is most effectively achieved by improving the efficiency of health campaigns and treatment. Numerical simulations further demonstrate that the optimal combination of all three control strategies significantly reduces both exposed and infected populations compared with implementing any single strategy alone. With an optimally designed set of interventions, the resulting policy achieves a balance between controlling viral spread and ensuring cost efficiency.

Kata kunci

Jaringan kolaborasi para penulis

26 penulis · 69 tautan kepenulisan bersama · 10 lintas organisasi

Arahkan kursor atau ketuk sebuah nama untuk menyorot rekan penulisnya. Klik dua kali untuk membuka halaman penulis.

  • University of Brawijaya
  • Politeknik Perkapalan Negeri Surabaya
  • Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura
  • Universitas Sulawesi Barat
  • Universitas PGRI Wiranegara
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Organisasi berbeda
  • Organisasi sama
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Garis lebih tebal = lebih banyak artikel bersama · lingkaran lebih besar = lebih banyak artikel
Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
İsnani DartiUniversity of Brawijaya4
Trisilowati TrisilowatiUniversity of Brawijaya4
Agus SuryantoUniversity of Brawijaya3
Umu Sa’adahUniversity of Brawijaya2
Ni Kadek Emik SapitriUniversity of Brawijaya2
Ach. KhozaimiUniversitas Trunodjoyo Madura2
Syaiful AnamUniversity of Brawijaya2
Hendro SukocoUniversitas Sulawesi Barat1
Irma SusantiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Sitti NuraliahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
AgustinaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Muhammad IrfanAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Eni SusantiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Syaiful AnamUniversity of Brawijaya1
Onik Febria DamayantiUniversity of Brawijaya1
Maya RayungsariUniversitas PGRI Wiranegara1
Risyqaa SyafitriUniversity of Brawijaya1
Nurul Imamah AhUniversity of Brawijaya1
Andonowati AndonowatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Wayan Firdaus MahmudyUniversity of Brawijaya1
Kasyful AmronUniversity of Brawijaya1
Deasy Sandhya Elya IkawatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

Afiliasi berasal dari OpenAlex; metadata OAI-PMH jurnal tidak memuatnya. Penulis tanpa ID OpenAlex dicocokkan berdasarkan nama, sehingga dua orang bisa tergabung atau satu orang bisa terpisah.

Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/oai, pertama di-harvest 8 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Control for Nipah Virus Outbreak</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Rosydah, Binti Mualifatul</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Marsudi</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Kusumawinahyu, Wuryansari Muharini</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Shofianah, Nur</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Nipah virus</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">mathematical model</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">basic reproduction number</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">sensitivity analysis</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">optimal control</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">92D30</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">37N25</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">93C95</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">93A30</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic pathogen capable of causing outbreaks with high mortality rates, ranging from 40% to 75%. The virus spreads through direct contact between humans and infected animals, consumption of contaminated food, and human-to-human transmission. As no vaccine or specific treatment is currently available, effective control measures must rely on public health policies. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to examine the transmission dynamics of the Nipah virus. We calculate the basic reproduction number R0 as an indicator of disease spread, perform a sensitivity analysis of key model parameters, and evaluate the effectiveness of three control strategies: health campaigns targeting exposed individuals, quarantine of infected individuals, and treatment to increase the recovery rate. The objective is to minimize both the number of exposed and infected individuals and the overall cost of implementing these controls. The model used is a compartmental framework dividing the human population into five subgroups: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), recovered (R), and deceased (D). To identify the optimal intervention strategy, we apply the Pontryagin Maximum Principle (PMP), and the resulting optimality system is solved numerically using the Forward–Backward Sweep method. The results show that the effective contact rate, incubation period, and treatment rate are the most influential parameters in determining disease transmission. Sensitivity analysis indicates that reducing R0 is most effectively achieved by improving the efficiency of health campaigns and treatment. Numerical simulations further demonstrate that the optimal combination of all three control strategies significantly reduces both exposed and infected populations compared with implementing any single strategy alone. With an optimally designed set of interventions, the resulting policy achieves a balance between controlling viral spread and ensuring cost efficiency.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-06-09</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/27316</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.5614/cbms.2026.9.1.5</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Communication in Biomathematical Sciences; Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026); 68-85</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2549-2896</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.5614/cbms.2026.9.1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/27316/7396</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2026 Communication in Biomathematical Sciences</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>