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OUTPUT-PRICE DYNAMICS IN THE ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES: Evidence from The Pre- and Post-1997 Financial Turmoil

Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business (GamaIJB) · Vol. 10 No. 2 (2008) · pp. 261–280

DOI
10.22146/gamaijb.5569
ISSN
2338-7238, 1411-1128
Published
2008-06-12
Publisher
Master in Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Language
eng

Abstract

We analyze the cyclical behavior between outputs and prices in major ASEAN economies, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines over two sample periods: the pre-crisis period (1990 to 1996) and the post-crisis period (2000 to 2006). Specifically, the study aims to shed the light on two issues: (i) the possibility that there is a change in the patterns of the correlations between real activities and prices in a particular country in the pre-crisis period compared to the post-crisis period; and (ii) the synchronization of real activity and price relationships or the business cycles across the major ASEAN countries. In order to analyze the output-price relationship across the countries and time periods, we adopt several tests including the Pearson correlation analysis, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). The study documents that the output-price relationship has changed in several countries following the crisis in 1997/1998. While there is a clear business cycles synchronization between the ASEAN-5 countries in the short-run, results have been mixed in the long run. Results of this study contribute towards further enriching the policy recommendations to help ensuring the viability and effectiveness of the economic cooperation between the ASEAN nations.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

14 authors · 17 co-authorship links · 10 across different organisations

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • International Islamic University Malaysia
  • Universitas Syiah Kuala
  • Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
  • Universiti Teknologi Petronas
  • International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance
  • Universiti Sains Malaysia
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Hartomi MaulanaAffiliation unknown1
Said MusnadiUniversitas Syiah Kuala1
Indra Yadi PutraUniversitas Syiah Kuala1
Bakri bin Abdul KarimUniversiti Malaysia Sarawak1
Samsul Ariffin Abdul KarimUniversiti Teknologi Petronas1
Naziruddin AbdullahInternational Islamic University Malaysia1
Jarita DuasaInternational Islamic University Malaysia1
Mohd Azmi OmarInternational Centre for Education in Islamic Finance1
Ronald RulindoInternational Islamic University Malaysia1
Rosylin Mohd YusofInternational Islamic University Malaysia1
Hasan BasriUniversitas Syiah Kuala1
A.K. Siti‐NabihaUniversiti Sains Malaysia1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.ugm.ac.id/gamaijb/oai, first harvested 28 Okt 2026, last seen 28 Okt 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">OUTPUT-PRICE DYNAMICS IN THE ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES: Evidence from The Pre- and Post-1997  Financial Turmoil</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Hj.  Kassim, Salina</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Abd. Majid, M. Shabri</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">ARDL; ASEAN; economic cooperation; output-price dynamics; VECM</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">We analyze the cyclical behavior between outputs and prices in major ASEAN economies, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines over two sample periods: the pre-crisis period (1990 to 1996) and the post-crisis period (2000 to 2006). Specifically, the study aims to shed the light on two issues: (i) the possibility that there is a change in the patterns of the correlations between real activities and prices in a particular country in the pre-crisis period compared to the post-crisis period; and (ii) the synchronization of real activity and price relationships or the business cycles across the major ASEAN countries. In order to analyze the output-price relationship across the countries and time periods, we adopt several tests including the Pearson correlation analysis, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). The study documents that the output-price relationship has changed in several countries following the crisis in 1997/1998. While there is a clear business cycles synchronization between the ASEAN-5 countries in the short-run, results have been mixed in the long run. Results of this study contribute towards further enriching the policy recommendations to help ensuring the viability and effectiveness of the economic cooperation between the ASEAN nations.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Master in Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2008-06-12</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.ugm.ac.id/gamaijb/article/view/5569</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.22146/gamaijb.5569</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business; Vol 10, No 2 (2008): May - August; 261-280</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2338-7238</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1411-1128</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.ugm.ac.id/gamaijb/article/view/5569/4540</dc:relation>
</oai_dc:dc>