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Will Indonesia enter the 2023 financial crisis? Application of early warning model system

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets · Vol. ume (2023) · hlm. 28–41

DOI
10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art3
ISSN
2502-180X, 2086-3128
Terbit
2023-04-10
Penerbit
Universitas Islam Indonesia
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstrak

Purpose ― This paper estimates the possibility of a financial crisis in Indonesia using an early warning system (EWMS) model. Method ― A quantitative EWMS model has been developed to detect a potential financial crisis in 2023 based on the econometric logistic probability model (Logit) Findings ― Based on the model estimates, Indonesia is expected to enter a financial crisis without adequate macroeconomic policies in the next 12 to 24 months. In recent years, Indonesia has implemented prudent macroeconomic policies such as increasing the Bank Indonesia policy rate and sustaining the state budget to avoid the impact of a deep financial crisis. Implications ― To avoid the potential for further financial crises, Indonesia must implement a wider range of crisis mitigation policies. Originality/value ― Although many argue that financial crises are predictable, it has been demonstrated in the literature that little is known about how to prevent them. This paper contributes to providing empirical evidence to address these issues.

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7 penulis · 10 tautan kepenulisan bersama · 2 lintas organisasi

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  • Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Lambung Mangkurat University
  • Organisasi berbeda
  • Organisasi sama
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Abdullah At TamimiUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Raeef AbdullahUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Umar SantosoUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Faiz ZamzamiUniversitas Gadjah Mada1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://journal.uii.ac.id/index.php/JEP/oai, pertama di-harvest 8 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Will Indonesia enter the 2023 financial crisis? Application of early warning model system</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Abimanyu, Anggito </dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Imansyah, Muhammad Handry</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Pratama , Muhammad Adisurya </dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Early Warning Model System (EWMS)</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">probability of crisis</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US"> Indonesian economy</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">crisis pre-emptive and mitigation policies</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">C510</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">C530</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">E32</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">G17</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Purpose ― This paper estimates the possibility of a financial crisis in Indonesia using an early warning system (EWMS) model.
Method ― A quantitative EWMS model has been developed to detect a potential financial crisis in 2023 based on the econometric logistic probability model (Logit)
Findings ― Based on the model estimates, Indonesia is expected to enter a financial crisis without adequate macroeconomic policies in the next 12 to 24 months. In recent years, Indonesia has implemented prudent macroeconomic policies such as increasing the Bank Indonesia policy rate and sustaining the state budget to avoid the impact of a deep financial crisis.
Implications ― To avoid the potential for further financial crises, Indonesia must implement a wider range of crisis mitigation policies.
Originality/value ― Although many argue that financial crises are predictable, it has been demonstrated in the literature that little is known about how to prevent them. This paper contributes to providing empirical evidence to address these issues.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Universitas Islam Indonesia</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2023-04-10</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.uii.ac.id/JEP/article/view/27914</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art3</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Economic Journal of Emerging Markets; Volume 15 Issue 1, 2023; 28-41</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2502-180X</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2086-3128</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.uii.ac.id/JEP/article/view/27914/15037</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2023 Anggito, Muhammad Handry Imansyah, Muhammad Adisurya  Pratama </dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>