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Application of Vector Auto Regression Model for Rainfall-River Discharge Analysis

Forum Geografi · Vol. 29 No. 1 (2015)

DOI
10.23917/forgeo.v29i1.786
ISSN
2460-3945, 0852-0682
Terbit
2015-08-06
Penerbit
Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

River discharge quantity is highly depended on rainfall and initial condition of river discharge; hence, the river discharge has auto-correlation relationships. This study used Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model for analysing the relationship between rainfall and river discharge variables. VAR model was selected by considering the nature of the relationship between rainfall and river discharge as well as the types of rainfall and discharge data, which are in form of time series data. This research was conducted by using daily rainfall and river discharge data obtained from three weirs, namely Sojomerto and Juwero, in Kendal Regency and Glapan in Demak Regency, Central Java Province. Result of the causality tests shows significant relationship of both variables, those on the influence of rainfall to river discharge as well as the influence of river discharge to rainfall variables. The significance relationships of river discharge to rainfall indicate that the rainfall in this area has moved downstream. In addition, the form of VAR model could explain the variety of the relationships ranging between 6.4% - 70.1%. These analyses could be improved by using rainfall and river discharge time series data measured in shorter time interval but in longer period.

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://journals.ums.ac.id/index.php/fg/oai, pertama di-harvest 8 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Application of Vector Auto Regression Model for Rainfall-River Discharge Analysis</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Hartini, Sri</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Hadi, Muhammad Pramono</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Sudibyakto, S</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Poniman, Aris</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US"></dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US"></dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US"></dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">River discharge quantity is highly depended on rainfall and initial condition of river discharge; hence, the river discharge has auto-correlation relationships. This study used Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model for analysing the relationship between rainfall and river discharge variables. VAR model was selected by considering the nature of the relationship between rainfall and river discharge as well as the types of rainfall and discharge data, which are in form of time series data. This research was conducted by using daily rainfall and river discharge data obtained from three weirs, namely Sojomerto and Juwero, in Kendal Regency and Glapan in Demak Regency, Central Java Province. Result of the causality tests shows significant relationship of both variables, those on the influence of rainfall to river discharge as well as the influence of river discharge to rainfall variables. The significance relationships of river discharge to rainfall indicate that the rainfall in this area has moved downstream. In addition, the form of VAR model could explain the variety of the relationships ranging between 6.4% - 70.1%. These analyses could be improved by using rainfall and river discharge time series data measured in shorter time interval but in longer period.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta</dc:publisher>
	<dc:contributor xml:lang="en-US"></dc:contributor>
	<dc:date>2015-08-06</dc:date>
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	<dc:identifier>https://journals.ums.ac.id/index.php/fg/article/view/786</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.23917/forgeo.v29i1.786</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Forum Geografi; Vol 29, No 1 (2015): July 2015</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2460-3945</dc:source>
	<dc:source>0852-0682</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journals.ums.ac.id/index.php/fg/article/view/786/515</dc:relation>
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	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2015 Forum Geografi</dc:rights>
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