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GIS-Based Evaluation of Land Subsidence and Land Use Change Using Spatial Interpolation Techniques in North Semarang

Indonesian Journal of Geography · Vol. 58 No. 2 (2026) · hlm. 300–308

DOI
10.22146/ijg.94125
ISSN
2354-9114, 0024-9521
Terbit
2026-08-31
Penerbit
Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Abstrak

Land subsidence has become one of the most critical environmental hazards affecting coastal cities in Indonesia, particularly North Semarang, where rapid urban expansion, industrial development, and intensive groundwater extraction have accelerated ground deformation and increased the vulnerability of urban infrastructure. Understanding the spatial relationship between land use change and land subsidence is therefore essential for supporting sustainable urban planning and disaster risk mitigation. This study aims to evaluate land subsidence patterns using spatial interpolation techniques and to investigate the influence of land use change on subsidence dynamics in North Semarang. The study integrates Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis with multi-temporal geospatial datasets, including land subsidence monitoring data, SPOT-6 satellite imagery, and official land use maps covering the 2013–2023 period. Land use changes were identified through image interpretation, field verification, digitization, and overlay analysis using ArcGIS. Four interpolation methods—Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW), Natural Neighbor, Kriging, and Spline—were evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) statistic to determine the most reliable approach for modeling the spatial distribution of land subsidence. The results indicate substantial conversion of undeveloped land into industrial, warehousing, commercial, and transportation areas, particularly around Tanjung Mas Port, demonstrating rapid urbanization during the study period. Evaluation of the interpolation methods shows that the Kriging model achieved the lowest RMSE value (0.3843), outperforming IDW (0.4101), Natural Neighbor (0.4890), and Spline (0.5428), indicating the highest predictive accuracy for representing land subsidence patterns. The spatial analysis further reveals that areas experiencing the most intensive urban development coincide with zones of higher subsidence rates, which increased from 5.47 cm/year in 2013 to 6.03 cm/year in 2023, while land use conversion reached approximately 88.45 ha/year. These findings demonstrate a strong spatial association between urban expansion and land subsidence in North Semarang. This study demonstrates that GIS-based spatial interpolation combined with multi-temporal land use analysis provides an effective framework for identifying land subsidence hotspots and evaluating their relationship with urban development. The findings offer valuable scientific evidence for spatial planning, groundwater management, and coastal risk mitigation, while supporting the development of sustainable land-use policies in rapidly urbanizing coastal environments.Received: 2024-02-16 Revised: 2024-02-23 Accepted: 2026-08-25 Published: 2026-08-31

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  • Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Universitas Halu Oleo
  • Institut Teknologi Medan
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
M. Anggri SetiawanUniversitas Gadjah Mada3
Danang Sri HadmokoUniversitas Gadjah Mada3
Sunarto SunartoAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Christopher GomezAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Bachtiar W. MutaqinAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Nurul KhakhimAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Dyah R HizbaronAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Edwin MaulanaAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Djati MardiatnoAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Noor Husna KhairisaUniversitas Halu Oleo1
AS Haris SumadiriaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Tita - IndrianiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Haris SumadiriaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Izza SalsabilaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Widiastuti WidiastutiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Aep WahyudinAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Dadan SuherdianaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Nadya AnggitiaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Yusuf Zainal AbidinAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Nur FathiaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Abdul Aziz Ma’arifAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Juniar FatharaniAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Nandya Anggita PutriAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Abdul Aziz MaárifAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Mega PutriAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Agus Ahmad SafeiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
SuryantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Mudrajat KuncoroAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
S SunartoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Puspita Indra WardhaniAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ratri Ma'rifatun Nisaa'Afiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ahmad CahyadiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Dini Feti AnggrainiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Suwarno SuwarnoInstitut Teknologi Medan1
Djarot SadhartoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Franck LavigneAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/ijg/oai, pertama di-harvest 8 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">GIS-Based Evaluation of Land Subsidence and Land Use Change Using Spatial Interpolation Techniques in North Semarang</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Gaffara, Ghefra Rizkan</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Marfai, Muh Aris</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Sartohadi, Junun</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Paryati, Paryati</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Geomatics, Geographic Information Systems, Urban and Regional Planning</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Building; coastal; landuse; subsidence</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Geographic and Geomatics</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Land subsidence has become one of the most critical environmental hazards affecting coastal cities in Indonesia, particularly North Semarang, where rapid urban expansion, industrial development, and intensive groundwater extraction have accelerated ground deformation and increased the vulnerability of urban infrastructure. Understanding the spatial relationship between land use change and land subsidence is therefore essential for supporting sustainable urban planning and disaster risk mitigation. This study aims to evaluate land subsidence patterns using spatial interpolation techniques and to investigate the influence of land use change on subsidence dynamics in North Semarang. The study integrates Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis with multi-temporal geospatial datasets, including land subsidence monitoring data, SPOT-6 satellite imagery, and official land use maps covering the 2013–2023 period. Land use changes were identified through image interpretation, field verification, digitization, and overlay analysis using ArcGIS. Four interpolation methods—Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW), Natural Neighbor, Kriging, and Spline—were evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) statistic to determine the most reliable approach for modeling the spatial distribution of land subsidence. The results indicate substantial conversion of undeveloped land into industrial, warehousing, commercial, and transportation areas, particularly around Tanjung Mas Port, demonstrating rapid urbanization during the study period. Evaluation of the interpolation methods shows that the Kriging model achieved the lowest RMSE value (0.3843), outperforming IDW (0.4101), Natural Neighbor (0.4890), and Spline (0.5428), indicating the highest predictive accuracy for representing land subsidence patterns. The spatial analysis further reveals that areas experiencing the most intensive urban development coincide with zones of higher subsidence rates, which increased from 5.47 cm/year in 2013 to 6.03 cm/year in 2023, while land use conversion reached approximately 88.45 ha/year. These findings demonstrate a strong spatial association between urban expansion and land subsidence in North Semarang. This study demonstrates that GIS-based spatial interpolation combined with multi-temporal land use analysis provides an effective framework for identifying land subsidence hotspots and evaluating their relationship with urban development. The findings offer valuable scientific evidence for spatial planning, groundwater management, and coastal risk mitigation, while supporting the development of sustainable land-use policies in rapidly urbanizing coastal environments.Received: 2024-02-16 Revised: 2024-02-23  Accepted: 2026-08-25 Published: 2026-08-31 </dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada</dc:publisher>
	<dc:contributor xml:lang="en-US">Esa Unggul University Press</dc:contributor>
	<dc:date>2026-08-31</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Interpolation, Overlay and Comparation</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.ugm.ac.id/ijg/article/view/94125</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.22146/ijg.94125</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Indonesian Journal of Geography; Vol 58, No 2 (2026): Indonesian Journal of Geography; 300-308</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2354-9114</dc:source>
	<dc:source>0024-9521</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.ugm.ac.id/ijg/article/view/94125/pdf</dc:relation>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.ugm.ac.id/ijg/article/downloadSuppFile/94125/31715</dc:relation>
	<dc:coverage xml:lang="en-US">Geo-information for Spatial Planning and Risk Management</dc:coverage>
	<dc:coverage xml:lang="en-US">Land Subsidence and Landuse Changes</dc:coverage>
	<dc:coverage xml:lang="en-US">Gumilar, I., Abidin, H. Z., Sidiq, T. P., Andreas, H., Maiyudi, R., Gamal, M., &amp; Fukuda, Y. (2013). Mapping And Evaluating The Impact Of Land Subsidence In Semarang (Indonesia). In Indonesian Journal of Geospatial (Vol. 2, Issue 2).</dc:coverage>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2026 Authors</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>