Melola Discovery

← Melola Discovery

Jurnal SINTA 2

Epidemic Data Analysis of Three Variants of COVID-19 Spread in Indonesia

Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Informasi (JIKI) · Vol. 15 No. 1 (2022) · pp. 47–54

DOI
10.21609/jiki.v15i1.1055
ISSN
2502-9274, 2088-7051
Published
2022-02-27
Publisher
Faculty of Computer Science - Universitas Indonesia
Language
eng

Abstract

Three variants of COVID-19 had been found in Indonesia. A control strategy may rely on the transmission rate of the variant. This study aims to investigate how the variants spread in Indonesia by computing a basic and effective reproduction number on the national and province scale. The basic reproduction number shows the indicator of initial transmission rate of alpha variant computed by an exponential growth rate model. The effective reproduction number describes the dynamic of the transmission rate estimated based on a Bayesian approach. This study revealed that each variant shows different characteristics. The alpha variant of COVID-19 in Indonesia was mainly initiated from big cities, then it spread to all provinces quickly because the control strategies were not established well at the beginning. A rapid increase of the effective reproduction number about July 2021 showed a novel delta variant, but it could be managed quite well by a large number of testing and stronger restrictions. Before the end of 2021, a novel variant omicron was also shown by the steeper change of the effective reproduction number. Thus, the variant spread rate can be estimated by how steep the effective reproduction number change is.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

6 authors · 9 co-authorship links · 3 across different organisations

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • Indonesian Institute of Sciences
  • National Research and Innovation Agency
  • Kyoto University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Furqon Hensan MuttaqienIndonesian Institute of Sciences1
Rifki SadikinIndonesian Institute of Sciences1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://jiki.cs.ui.ac.id/index.php/jiki/oai, first harvested 26 Okt 2026, last seen 26 Okt 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Epidemic Data Analysis of Three Variants of COVID-19 Spread in Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Syafarina, Inna</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Wirahman, Taufiq</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Iryanto, Syam Budi</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Latifah, Arnida Lailatul</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">effective reproductive number</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">COVID-19</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">exponential</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Bayesian</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">infectious disease</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Three variants of COVID-19 had been found in Indonesia. A control strategy may rely on the transmission rate of the variant. This study aims to investigate how the variants spread in Indonesia by computing a basic and effective reproduction number on the national and province scale. The basic reproduction number shows the indicator of initial transmission rate of alpha variant computed by an exponential growth rate model. The effective reproduction number describes the dynamic of the transmission rate estimated based on a Bayesian approach. This study revealed that each variant shows different characteristics. The alpha variant of COVID-19 in Indonesia was mainly initiated from big cities, then it spread to all provinces quickly because the control strategies were not established well at the beginning. A rapid increase of the effective reproduction number about July 2021 showed a novel delta variant, but it could be managed quite well by a large number of testing and stronger restrictions. Before the end of 2021, a novel variant omicron was also shown by the steeper change of the effective reproduction number. Thus, the variant spread rate can be estimated by how steep the effective reproduction number change is.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Faculty of Computer Science  - Universitas Indonesia</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2022-02-27</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://jiki.cs.ui.ac.id/index.php/jiki/article/view/1055</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.21609/jiki.v15i1.1055</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Informasi; Vol. 15 No. 1 (2022): Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Informasi (Journal of Computer Science and Information); 47-54</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2502-9274</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2088-7051</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.21609/jiki.v15i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://jiki.cs.ui.ac.id/index.php/jiki/article/view/1055/455</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2022 Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Informasi</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>