Comparison of Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for Estimating the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) Model Parameter Values

Abstract

Background: The most commonly used mathematical model for analyzing disease spread is the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. Moreover, the dynamics of the SEIR model depend on several factors, such as the parameter values. Objective: This study aimed to compare two optimization methods, namely genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO), in estimating the SEIR model parameter values, such as the infection, transition, recovery, and death rates. Methods: GA and PSO algorithms were compared to estimate parameter values of the SEIR model. The fitness value was calculated from the error between the actual data of cumulative positive COVID-19 cases and the numerical data of cases from the solution of the SEIR COVID-19 model. Furthermore, the numerical solution of the COVID-19 model was calculated using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta algorithm (RK-4), while the actual data were obtained from the cumulative dataset of positive COVID-19 cases in the province of Jakarta, Indonesia. Two datasets were then used to compare the success of each algorithm, namely, Dataset 1, representing the initial interval for the spread of COVID-19, and Dataset 2, representing an interval where there was a high increase in COVID-19 cases. Results: Four parameters were estimated, namely the infection rate, transition rate, recovery rate, and death rate, due to disease. In Dataset 1, the smallest error of GA method, namely 8.9%, occurred when the value of, while the numerical error of PSO was 7.5%. In Dataset 2, the smallest error of GA method, namely 31.21%, occurred when, while the numerical error of PSO was 3.46%. Conclusion: Based on the parameter estimation results for Datasets 1 and 2, PSO had better fitting results than GA. This showed PSO was more robust to the provided datasets and could better adapt to the trends of the COVID-19 epidemic. Keywords: Genetic algorithm, Particle swarm optimization, SEIR model, COVID-19, Parameter estimation.