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Human Biometeorological Forecasting of Climate-Sensitive Childhood Pneumonia in Bojonegoro, Indonesia

JURNAL KESEHATAN LINGKUNGAN (Journal of Environmental Health) · Vol. 18 No. 1 (2026) · hlm. 44–52

DOI
10.20473/jkl.v18i1.2026.44-52
ISSN
2540-881X, 1829-7285
Terbit
2026-01-27
Penerbit
Universitas Airlangga
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0

Abstrak

Introduction: Indonesia is currently facing increasing climate-related health risks, with childhood pneumonia remaining a key climate sensitive disease that reflects strong biometeorological influences of temperature, humidity, and rainfall. The 3,968 reported cases of childhood pneumonia in Bojonegoro for 2024 highlight the necessity for tailored forecasting instruments to enhance climate-responsive health strategies. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX)-based model to forecast climate-sensitive childhood pneumonia in Bojonegoro. Methods: We analyzed monthly childhood pneumonia data alongside temperature, humidity, and rainfall from 2020–2024, supported by data characterization, correlation testing, and stability assessments. A climate- based predictive model—adjusted with a pandemic lockdown dummy—was then selected based on fit, accuracy, and residual diagnostics to generate forecasts for 2025–2029. Results and Discussion: From 2020 to 2024, Bojonegoro documented 21,032 childhood pneumonia cases, with a notable rise following periods of elevated humidity and rainfall. The SARIMAX (0,1,1)(0,1,1)[3] model, adjusted for lockdown effects, yielded robust forecasts indicating mid-year peaks aligned with monsoon transitions, followed by gradual declines, with humidity (–3.682) and rainfall (–0.124) serving as significant negative predictors of airborne transmission. It reduces pneumonia risk through enhanced droplet settling, decreased pathogen stability, and rainfall-driven washout effects. Conclusion: In conclusion, the lockdown-adjusted SARIMAX model identifies humidity and rainfall as reliable predictors for childhood pneumonia trends in Bojonegoro. It supports the development of climate-resilient health planning under the national guidelines, facilitating early-warning systems and targeted pneumonia prevention in vulnerable villages/sub districts.

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  • Universitas Airlangga
  • Universitas Islam Lamongan
  • Poltekkes Kemenkes Surabaya
  • Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia
  • Universitas Kadiri
  • UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
  • Universitas Gadjah Mada
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Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Eko WinartiUniversitas Kadiri2
Adelita SetiawanUniversitas Airlangga2
Shofiyah AuliaUniversitas Islam Lamongan1
Marsha Savira Agatha PutriUniversitas Islam Lamongan1
Denaya Andrya PrasidyaUniversitas Islam Lamongan1
Moh AlimansurUniversitas Kadiri1
Eka Menik SetianiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Marlik MarlikPoltekkes Kemenkes Surabaya1
Darjati DarjatiPoltekkes Kemenkes Surabaya1
Pradevi Milafitri Farista AnantoPoltekkes Kemenkes Surabaya1
Eri Iva RustantiPoltekkes Kemenkes Surabaya1
Olievia Rachma AkhsaniUniversitas Airlangga1
Anis FuadUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Khuliyah Candraning DiyanahUniversitas Airlangga1
Aditya Sukma PawitraUniversitas Airlangga1
Siti NurhidayatiKementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia1
Zainul Amiruddin ZakariaUniversiti of Malaysia Sabah1
Rania Ichwana WicaksonoUniversitas Airlangga1
Winarko WinarkoPoltekkes Kemenkes Surabaya1
Kholifah Firsayanti JuwonoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Moch. SahriUniversitas Nahdlatul Ulama Surabaya1
Moch Irfan HadiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Soedjajadi KemanUniversitas Airlangga1
Dedy SuprayogiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Lucia Yovita HendratiUniversitas Airlangga1
Ni Gusti Ayu EkaPelita Harapan University1
Efi SriwahyuniAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Evi Noerita LestariAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Hendriyanto HendriyantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/JKL/oai, pertama di-harvest 9 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 9 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Human Biometeorological Forecasting of Climate-Sensitive Childhood Pneumonia in Bojonegoro, Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Nur Lathifah Syakbanah</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Erna Hayati</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Yudied Agung Mirasa</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Zahra Zakiyah Nafisah</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Childhood Pneumonia</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Climate Variability</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Forecasting</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">SARIMAX</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Introduction: Indonesia is currently facing increasing climate-related health risks, with childhood pneumonia remaining a key climate sensitive disease that reflects strong biometeorological influences of temperature, humidity, and rainfall. The 3,968 reported cases of childhood pneumonia in Bojonegoro for 2024 highlight the necessity for tailored forecasting instruments to enhance climate-responsive health strategies. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX)-based model to forecast climate-sensitive childhood pneumonia in Bojonegoro. Methods: We analyzed monthly childhood pneumonia data alongside temperature, humidity, and rainfall from 2020–2024, supported by data characterization, correlation testing, and stability assessments. A climate- based predictive model—adjusted with a pandemic lockdown dummy—was then selected based on fit, accuracy, and residual diagnostics to generate forecasts for 2025–2029. Results and Discussion: From 2020 to 2024, Bojonegoro documented 21,032 childhood pneumonia cases, with a notable rise following periods of elevated humidity and rainfall. The SARIMAX (0,1,1)(0,1,1)[3] model, adjusted for lockdown effects, yielded robust forecasts indicating mid-year peaks aligned with monsoon transitions, followed by gradual declines, with humidity (–3.682) and rainfall (–0.124) serving as significant negative predictors of airborne transmission. It reduces pneumonia risk through enhanced droplet settling, decreased pathogen stability, and rainfall-driven washout effects. Conclusion: In conclusion, the lockdown-adjusted SARIMAX model identifies humidity and rainfall as reliable predictors for childhood pneumonia trends in Bojonegoro. It supports the development of climate-resilient health planning under the national guidelines, facilitating early-warning systems and targeted pneumonia prevention in vulnerable villages/sub districts.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Universitas Airlangga</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-01-27</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:format>text/xml</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/JKL/article/view/79136</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20473/jkl.v18i1.2026.44-52</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">JURNAL KESEHATAN LINGKUNGAN ; Vol. 18 No. 1 (2026): JURNAL KESEHATAN LINGKUNGAN; 44-52</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2540-881X</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1829-7285</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/JKL/article/view/79136/35719</dc:relation>
	<dc:relation>https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/JKL/article/view/79136/36004</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>