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The Analysis of Epidemic Dynamical Models for Dengue Transmission Considering the Mosquito Aquatic Phase

Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) · Vol. ume (2025) · hlm. 173–182

DOI
10.37905/jjbm.v6i3.29332
ISSN
2723-0317
Terbit
2025-09-01
Penerbit
Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Abstrak

This study generalizes the dengue transmission model by considering the dynamics of the human population and the Aedes aegypti mosquito population. The mosquito population is devided into two phases, i.e., the aquatic phase and the adult phase. From the model, we seek the disease-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, and basic reproduction number (R0) points. The model yields a single basic reproduction number which determines the system’s behavior. If R0 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, indicating that the disease will die out. Conversely, if R0 1, an endemic equilibrium exists, and the disease may persist in the population. Next, a numerical simulation is performed to geometrically visualize the resulting analysis and also to simulate the dengue transmission in DKI Jakarta Province, Indonesia. The resulting numerical simulation supports our analysis. Meanwhile, the simulation in DKI Jakarta Province suggests that the dengue fever disappears after 60 days from the first case appearance after controlling the mosquito population through fogging and the use of mosquito larvae repellent. Lastly, the sensitivity analysis of R0 indicates that parameters related to the mosquito’s aquatic phase have a strong influence on dengue transmission, meaning that small changes in these parameters can significantly increase or decrease the value of R0 and thus the potential for an outbreak.

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  • Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta
  • Bandung Institute of Technology
  • University of Singaperbangsa Karawang
  • Binus University
  • Diponegoro University
  • State University of Semarang
  • Indonesia University of Education
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Ikhwal YupintoSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta3
Eti HartatiSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta2
Yanne IreneSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta2
Mochammad Rafli AlamsyahSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta2
Wahri IrawanSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta2
Maghvirotul AzizahSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta1
Savira PratiwiSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta1
Raza Aqil MaulanaSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta1
Amalia ZahraBinus University1
Suma'inna Suma'innaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Tesa Nur PadilahUniversity of Singaperbangsa Karawang1
Iqbal MaulanaUniversity of Singaperbangsa Karawang1
Nurcahya Yulian AsharDiponegoro University1
Yoga Amanda PutraSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta1
Bambang PurwantoState University of Semarang1
Mahmudi MahmudiSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta1
Galuh PrayogaSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta1
Irma FauziahSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta1
Salma Abidah FaizahSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta1
Taufik Edy SutantoSyarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta1
Agus Yodi GunawanBandung Institute of Technology1
S. SutawanirAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Rini MarwatiIndonesia University of Education1
Iskandar FahmiBandung Institute of Technology1
Anggita SeptianiBandung Institute of Technology1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://ejurnal.ung.ac.id/index.php/JJBM/oai, pertama di-harvest 9 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 9 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">The Analysis of Epidemic Dynamical Models for Dengue Transmission Considering the Mosquito Aquatic Phase</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Inayah, Nur</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Manaqib, Muhammad</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Fitriyati, Nina</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Wijaya, Madona Yunita</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Fiade, Andrew</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Sari, Flori Ratna</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Dengue Fever; Aedes Aegypti; Aquatic Phase; Stability Analysis; Sensitivity Analysis</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">This  study  generalizes the dengue  transmission model  by  considering the dynamics of the human population and  the Aedes  aegypti mosquito  population.  The  mosquito  population is  devided into  two  phases,  i.e.,  the aquatic  phase and the adult  phase.  From  the model,  we seek the disease-free  equilibrium, endemic  equilibrium, and  basic  reproduction number   (R0) points.    The  model  yields a  single   basic  reproduction number   which determines the system’s  behavior.   If  R0    1,  the disease-free  equilibrium is  locally  asymptotically stable, indicating that the disease  will die out.  Conversely, if R0    1, an endemic  equilibrium exists,  and  the disease may  persist  in the  population.    Next,   a  numerical simulation  is  performed  to  geometrically  visualize   the resulting analysis  and  also  to  simulate the  dengue   transmission in  DKI Jakarta   Province,  Indonesia.   The resulting  numerical simulation  supports our  analysis.   Meanwhile, the  simulation in  DKI Jakarta  Province suggests that  the dengue  fever  disappears after  60 days  from  the first  case appearance  after  controlling  the mosquito  population through fogging and the use of mosquito  larvae  repellent.  Lastly, the sensitivity analysis of R0   indicates  that  parameters   related  to  the  mosquito’s  aquatic   phase  have  a  strong   influence   on  dengue transmission, meaning that small  changes  in these parameters  can significantly increase or decrease the value  of R0  and thus the potential  for an outbreak.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo</dc:publisher>
	<dc:contributor xml:lang="en-US"></dc:contributor>
	<dc:date>2025-09-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ejurnal.ung.ac.id/index.php/JJBM/article/view/29332</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.37905/jjbm.v6i3.29332</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM); Volume 6, Issue 3: September 2025; 173-182</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2723-0317</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.37905/jjbm.v6i3</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ejurnal.ung.ac.id/index.php/JJBM/article/view/29332/11643</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2025 Nur Inayah, Muhammad Manaqib, Nina Fitriyati, Madona Yunita Wijaya, Andrew Fiade, Flori Ratna Sari</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0</dc:rights>
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