Melola Discovery

← Melola Discovery

Akses terbuka Jurnal SINTA 1

Comparison of Fractional-Order Monkeypox Model with Singular and Non-Singular Kernels

Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) · Vol. ume (2024) · hlm. 1–9

DOI
10.37905/jjbm.v5i1.24920
ISSN
2723-0317
Terbit
2024-06-08
Penerbit
Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Abstrak

The singularity of the kernel of the Caputo fractional derivative has become an issue, leading many researchers to consider the Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivative in epidemic models where the kernel is non-singular. In this context, the objective of this study is to compare the calibration and forecasting performance of fractional-order monkeypox models with singular and nonsingular kernels, represented by the model with respect to the Caputo operator and the ABC operator, respectively. We have proposed a monkeypox epidemic model with respect to the ABC operator (MPXABC), where the model with respect to the Caputo derivative (MPXC) has been proposed in previous research. We have analyzed the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Three equilibrium points of the model are endemic, human endemic, and monkeypox-free, and their global stability has been investigated. The global dynamics of the MPXABC are the same as those of the MPXC. In evaluating the performance, we collected secondary data on weekly monkeypox cases from June 1 to November 23, 2022, in the USA. Parameter estimation has been performed using the least squares method, while the solutions of the model have been determined numerically using a predictor-corrector scheme. The benchmark for performance has been determined based on the root mean square error. Data calibration and forecasting indicate that the MPXC generally has the best performance for each value of the derivative order. For certain values of derivative order, the MPXABC performs better than the corresponding firstorder model. However, generally, the corresponding first-order model performs better than the MPXABC. Depending on the data trends and the specified orders, the MPXC outperforms the MPXABC. Thus, the singularity issue of the Caputo derivative does not always have a negative impact on model fitting to data.

Kata kunci

Jaringan kolaborasi para penulis

40 penulis · 109 tautan kepenulisan bersama · 36 lintas organisasi · menampilkan 40 yang paling banyak terhubung

Arahkan kursor atau ketuk sebuah nama untuk menyorot rekan penulisnya. Klik dua kali untuk membuka halaman penulis.

  • University of Brawijaya
  • State University of Gorontalo
  • Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura
  • Sebelas Maret University
  • University of Technology Malaysia
  • Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency
  • Khalifa University of Science and Technology
  • Organisasi lain
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Organisasi berbeda
  • Organisasi sama
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Garis lebih tebal = lebih banyak artikel bersama · lingkaran lebih besar = lebih banyak artikel
Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Hasan S. PanigoroState University of Gorontalo8
Wuryansari Muharini KusumawinahyuUniversity of Brawijaya8
Resmawan ResmawanState University of Gorontalo4
Nur ShofianahUniversity of Brawijaya3
Onik Febria DamayantiUniversity of Brawijaya3
Ach. KhozaimiUniversitas Trunodjoyo Madura2
Wuryansari Muharini KusumahwinahyuAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Hadi SusantoKhalifa University of Science and Technology2
Maya RayungsariUniversitas PGRI Wiranegara2
Moh. Nurul HudaMulawarman University2
Muhammad FakhruddinBandung Institute of Technology2
Nurul Imamah AhUniversity of Brawijaya2
SitawatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Arifin NoorAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Euis Elih NurlaelihAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
D. R. R. DamaiyantiUniversity of Brawijaya1
Suci AstutikUniversity of Brawijaya1
Darmanto DarmantoSebelas Maret University1
Nurjannah NurjannahUniversity of Brawijaya1
Diego IrsandyUniversity of Brawijaya1
Muhammad Hisyam LeeUniversity of Technology Malaysia1
Rismania Hartanti Putri Yulianing DamayantiUniversity of Brawijaya1
Marsudi MarsudiUniversity of Brawijaya1
Syaiful AnamUniversity of Brawijaya1
Kwardiniya AndawaningtyasUniversity of Brawijaya1
Cornelia Yosefine HalimUniversity of Brawijaya1
Nandia PrimasariUniversity of Brawijaya1
Rina AdhistaUniversity of Brawijaya1
Trya Rizky AdelliaUniversity of Brawijaya1
Evi ArdiyaniMeteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency1
Syaiful AnamUniversity of Brawijaya1
Risyqaa SyafitriUniversity of Brawijaya1
Luchman HakimUniversity of Brawijaya1
Brian RahardiUniversity of Brawijaya1
Serafinah IndriyaniUniversity of Brawijaya1
Fira FitriahUniversity of Brawijaya1

Afiliasi berasal dari OpenAlex; metadata OAI-PMH jurnal tidak memuatnya. Penulis tanpa ID OpenAlex dicocokkan berdasarkan nama, sehingga dua orang bisa tergabung atau satu orang bisa terpisah.

Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://ejurnal.ung.ac.id/index.php/JJBM/oai, pertama di-harvest 9 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 9 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc)
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Comparison of Fractional-Order Monkeypox Model with Singular and Non-Singular Kernels</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Musafir, Raqqasyi Rahmatullah</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Suryanto, Agus</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Darti, Isnani</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Trisilowati, Trisilowati</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Monkeypox model; Fractional-order model; Caputo derivative;  Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo derivative; Parameter estimation</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The singularity of the kernel of the Caputo fractional derivative has become an issue, leading many researchers to consider the Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivative in epidemic models where the kernel is non-singular. In this context, the objective of this study is to compare the calibration and forecasting performance of fractional-order monkeypox models with singular and nonsingular kernels, represented by the model with respect to the Caputo operator and the ABC operator, respectively. We have proposed a monkeypox epidemic model with respect to the ABC operator (MPXABC), where the model with respect to the Caputo derivative (MPXC) has been proposed in previous research. We have analyzed the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Three equilibrium points of the model are endemic, human endemic, and monkeypox-free, and their global stability has been investigated. The global dynamics of the MPXABC are the same as those of the MPXC. In evaluating the performance, we collected secondary data on weekly monkeypox cases from June 1 to November 23, 2022, in the USA. Parameter estimation has been performed using the least squares method, while the solutions of the model have been determined numerically using a predictor-corrector scheme. The benchmark for performance has been determined based on the root mean square error. Data calibration and forecasting indicate that the MPXC generally has the best performance for each value of the derivative order. For certain values of derivative order, the MPXABC performs better than the corresponding firstorder model. However, generally, the corresponding first-order model performs better than the MPXABC. Depending on the data trends and the specified orders, the MPXC outperforms the MPXABC. Thus, the singularity issue of the Caputo derivative does not always have a negative impact on model fitting to data.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo</dc:publisher>
	<dc:contributor xml:lang="en-US">Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science (FMIPA), University of Brawijaya</dc:contributor>
	<dc:date>2024-06-08</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ejurnal.ung.ac.id/index.php/JJBM/article/view/24920</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.37905/jjbm.v5i1.24920</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM); Volume 5, Issue 1: June 2024; 1-9</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2723-0317</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.37905/jjbm.v5i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ejurnal.ung.ac.id/index.php/JJBM/article/view/24920/8682</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2024 Raqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir, Agus Suryanto, Isnani Darti, Trisilowati</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>