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Comparison of Fractional-Order Monkeypox Model with Singular and Non-Singular Kernels
Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) · Vol. ume (2024) · hlm. 1–9
- ISSN
- 2723-0317
- Terbit
- 2024-06-08
- Penerbit
- Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
- Bahasa
- eng
Abstrak
The singularity of the kernel of the Caputo fractional derivative has become an issue, leading many researchers to consider the Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivative in epidemic models where the kernel is non-singular. In this context, the objective of this study is to compare the calibration and forecasting performance of fractional-order monkeypox models with singular and nonsingular kernels, represented by the model with respect to the Caputo operator and the ABC operator, respectively. We have proposed a monkeypox epidemic model with respect to the ABC operator (MPXABC), where the model with respect to the Caputo derivative (MPXC) has been proposed in previous research. We have analyzed the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Three equilibrium points of the model are endemic, human endemic, and monkeypox-free, and their global stability has been investigated. The global dynamics of the MPXABC are the same as those of the MPXC. In evaluating the performance, we collected secondary data on weekly monkeypox cases from June 1 to November 23, 2022, in the USA. Parameter estimation has been performed using the least squares method, while the solutions of the model have been determined numerically using a predictor-corrector scheme. The benchmark for performance has been determined based on the root mean square error. Data calibration and forecasting indicate that the MPXC generally has the best performance for each value of the derivative order. For certain values of derivative order, the MPXABC performs better than the corresponding firstorder model. However, generally, the corresponding first-order model performs better than the MPXABC. Depending on the data trends and the specified orders, the MPXC outperforms the MPXABC. Thus, the singularity issue of the Caputo derivative does not always have a negative impact on model fitting to data.
Kata kunci
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40 penulis · 109 tautan kepenulisan bersama · 36 lintas organisasi · menampilkan 40 yang paling banyak terhubung
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- University of Brawijaya
- State University of Gorontalo
- Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura
- Sebelas Maret University
- University of Technology Malaysia
- Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency
- Khalifa University of Science and Technology
- Organisasi lain
- Afiliasi tidak diketahui
- Organisasi berbeda
- Organisasi sama
- Afiliasi tidak diketahui
- Garis lebih tebal = lebih banyak artikel bersama · lingkaran lebih besar = lebih banyak artikel
Tampilkan sebagai tabel
| Rekan penulis | Organisasi | Artikel bersama |
|---|---|---|
| Hasan S. Panigoro | State University of Gorontalo | 8 |
| Wuryansari Muharini Kusumawinahyu | University of Brawijaya | 8 |
| Resmawan Resmawan | State University of Gorontalo | 4 |
| Nur Shofianah | University of Brawijaya | 3 |
| Onik Febria Damayanti | University of Brawijaya | 3 |
| Ach. Khozaimi | Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura | 2 |
| Wuryansari Muharini Kusumahwinahyu | Afiliasi tidak diketahui | 2 |
| Hadi Susanto | Khalifa University of Science and Technology | 2 |
| Maya Rayungsari | Universitas PGRI Wiranegara | 2 |
| Moh. Nurul Huda | Mulawarman University | 2 |
| Muhammad Fakhruddin | Bandung Institute of Technology | 2 |
| Nurul Imamah Ah | University of Brawijaya | 2 |
| Sitawati | Afiliasi tidak diketahui | 1 |
| Arifin Noor | Afiliasi tidak diketahui | 1 |
| Euis Elih Nurlaelih | Afiliasi tidak diketahui | 1 |
| D. R. R. Damaiyanti | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Suci Astutik | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Darmanto Darmanto | Sebelas Maret University | 1 |
| Nurjannah Nurjannah | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Diego Irsandy | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Muhammad Hisyam Lee | University of Technology Malaysia | 1 |
| Rismania Hartanti Putri Yulianing Damayanti | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Marsudi Marsudi | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Syaiful Anam | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Kwardiniya Andawaningtyas | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Cornelia Yosefine Halim | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Nandia Primasari | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Rina Adhista | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Trya Rizky Adellia | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Evi Ardiyani | Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency | 1 |
| Syaiful Anam | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Risyqaa Syafitri | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Luchman Hakim | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Brian Rahardi | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Serafinah Indriyani | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Fira Fitriah | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
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