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Forecasting land cover transitions in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed via CA-Markov modeling

Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management · Vol. 13 No. 3 (2026) · hlm. 10413–10428

DOI
10.15243/jdmlm.2026.133.10413
ISSN
2502-2458, 2339-076X
Terbit
2026-07-01
Penerbit
Brawijaya University
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Abstrak

The land cover change analysis in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed is crucial because Bengawan Solo is the largest watershed in Java. This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of land cover change in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed during the period 1995-2040. Land cover data obtained from satellite image interpretation were analyzed to identify changes in the periods 1995-2010 and 2010-2025. Furthermore, land cover projections in 2040 were modeled using the CA-Markov method, while the driving factors of land cover change were analyzed using GeoDetector. The analysis showed that settlements, agriculture, and water bodies showed an increasing trend during the periods 1995, 2010, and 2025, while vegetation and bareland showed a decrease. Single-factor analysis showed that slope, soil type, and proximity to rivers and roads had a statistically significant effect on land cover change (p<0.001), although the resulting q statistic value was relatively small. Interaction analysis showed that the combination of factors produced a higher q value than the single factor, especially for the combination of soil and rivers, but the effect remained relatively low. The results of the 2040 projection modeling indicate that settlement and agricultural land cover are expected to continue to increase. Settlements are projected to become the most dominant land cover in the study area, replacing vegetation. If this trend continues without intervention through spatial planning and conservation policies, the ecological balance of the area could potentially be disrupted.

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  • National Research and Innovation Agency
  • Muhammadiyah University of Surakarta
  • Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
  • Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • University of Brawijaya
  • Sunan Kalijaga State Islamic University Yogyakarta
  • State University of Malang
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Fajar YuliantoIndonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space2
Gatot NugrohoNational Research and Innovation Agency2
Nunung Puji NugrohoNational Research and Innovation Agency2
Danardono DanardonoMuhammadiyah University of Surakarta2
I Wayan Widhana SusilaNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Retno AgustariniNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Gipi SamawandanaNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Dewi Ratna SariSunan Kalijaga State Islamic University Yogyakarta1
Seftiawan Samsu RijalUniversity of Brawijaya1
Nurwita Mustika SariIndonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space1
Dony KushardonoIndonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space1
Zylshal ZylshalIndonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space1
Nurzawani Binti Md SofwaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Efri RoziatyMuhammadiyah University of Surakarta1
Jumadi JumadiMuhammadiyah University of Surakarta1
‪Kuswaji Dwi PriyonoMuhammadiyah University of Surakarta1
Arif RohmanSumatera Institute of Technology1
Aynaz LotfataUniversity of California, Davis1
Choirul AminMuhammadiyah University of Surakarta1
Heni MasrurohState University of Malang1
Vidya Nahdhiyatul FikriyahMuhammadiyah University of Surakarta1
Muhammad NawazNational University of Singapore1
Farha SattarCharles Darwin University1
Eko HaryonoUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Emilya NurjaniUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Eko Bayu Dharma PutraUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Ronggo SadonoUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Totok GunawanUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Ambar KusumandariUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
S SuwarsonoIndonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space1
Muhammad Rokhis KhomarudinNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Eddy HermawanIndonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space1
Udhi Catur NugrohoIndonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://jdmlm.ub.ac.id/index.php/jdmlm/oai, pertama di-harvest 9 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 9 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Forecasting land cover transitions in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed via CA-Markov modeling</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Nada, Firda Maftukhakh Hilmya</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Sunariya, Muhammad Iqbal Taufiqurrahman</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nandini, Ryke</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Chulafak, Galdita Aruba</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Ariseno, Ilyas Ayub</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Hadibasyir, Hamim Zaky</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Faridah, Rahma Afifah Nur</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">CA-markov</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">land cover</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">projection</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">watershed</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The land cover change analysis in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed is crucial because Bengawan Solo is the largest watershed in Java. This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of land cover change in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed during the period 1995-2040. Land cover data obtained from satellite image interpretation were analyzed to identify changes in the periods 1995-2010 and 2010-2025. Furthermore, land cover projections in 2040 were modeled using the CA-Markov method, while the driving factors of land cover change were analyzed using GeoDetector. The analysis showed that settlements, agriculture, and water bodies showed an increasing trend during the periods 1995, 2010, and 2025, while vegetation and bareland showed a decrease. Single-factor analysis showed that slope, soil type, and proximity to rivers and roads had a statistically significant effect on land cover change (p&amp;lt;0.001), although the resulting q statistic value was relatively small. Interaction analysis showed that the combination of factors produced a higher q value than the single factor, especially for the combination of soil and rivers, but the effect remained relatively low. The results of the 2040 projection modeling indicate that settlement and agricultural land cover are expected to continue to increase. Settlements are projected to become the most dominant land cover in the study area, replacing vegetation. If this trend continues without intervention through spatial planning and conservation policies, the ecological balance of the area could potentially be disrupted.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Brawijaya University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-07-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://jdmlm.ub.ac.id/index.php/jdmlm/article/view/17717</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15243/jdmlm.2026.133.10413</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management; Vol. 13 No. 3 (2026); 10413-10428</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2502-2458</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2339-076X</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://jdmlm.ub.ac.id/index.php/jdmlm/article/view/17717/2059</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>