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Analysis of drought hazards in agricultural land in Pacitan Regency, Indonesia

SAINS TANAH - Journal of Soil Science and Agroclimatology · Vol. 17 No. 1 (2020) · hlm. 7–15

DOI
10.20961/stjssa.v17i1.35688
ISSN
2356-1424, 1412-3606
Terbit
2020-06-29
Penerbit
Universitas Sebelas Maret
Bahasa
en

Abstrak

Pacitan Regency is a region in East Java Province with varied landforms and high disaster potential, including drought. The drought hazard in this region has not yet been determined. This study was conducted to analyze the potential of drought in Pacitan Regency in 2018 with the previous two decades (1998 and 2008) to predict future droughts. The study also focused on verifying how land-use changes impact drought potential. Mapping drought potential was based on the Ministry of Forestry method and was modified for this study. Drought potential was determined by scoring features and analyzing with a weighted overlay. Reference parameters and patterns of land-use change, as determined by Landsat 5, 7, and 8 satellite imagery, were analyzed. Then, the changing pattern was used to predict future 2030 land-use patterns using business as usual (BAU) analysis. For comparison, a land-use analysis was also done using the land capability class (LCC) and regional spatial plan (RSP). Data was validated using a confusion matrix. The accuracy of the drought estimation for Pacitan Regency was 75%. The results showed that the drought potential high and very-high level risk groups increased. The increase occurred due to changes in land use, specifically land management and plant species selection. Based on the results of the predicting BAU analysis, the level of potential of drought will increase by 2030. The regional spatial plan (RSP) and LCC analysis determined that, with no drought intervention, drought hazard in Pacitan Regency will increase.

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  • University of Brawijaya
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Sri Rahayu UtamiUniversity of Brawijaya3
Mochtar Lutfi RayesUniversity of Brawijaya3
S SudartoUniversity of Brawijaya2
Syamsu Ridzal Indra HadiAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Soemarno SoemarnoUniversity of Brawijaya2
Novandi Rizky PrasetyaUniversity of Brawijaya2
Sudarto SudartoUniversity of Brawijaya2
Reni UstiatikUniversity of Brawijaya2
Erza Aulia AdaraUniversity of Brawijaya2
Mochammad MunirUniversity of Brawijaya2
Vi’in Ayu PertiwiUniversity of Brawijaya1
Neza Fadia RayesaUniversity of Brawijaya1
Mas Ayu AmbayoenUniversity of Brawijaya1
Zaenal KusumaUniversity of Brawijaya1
Sifa’ul JanahtinAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ananda Ginanthian Alpheratz RidwanUniversity of Brawijaya1
Aftomi Firman AditamaUniversity of Brawijaya1
Erekso HadiwijoyoUniversity of Brawijaya1
Rika Ratna SariUniversity of Brawijaya1
Rizki Maulana IshaqUniversity of Brawijaya1
Danny Dwi SaputraUniversity of Brawijaya1
Didik SuprayogoUniversity of Brawijaya1
Maruf HadiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://jurnal.uns.ac.id/tanah/oai, pertama di-harvest 10 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 10 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Analysis of drought hazards in agricultural land in Pacitan Regency, Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Nita, Istika</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Putra, Aditya Nugraha</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Fibrianingtyas, Alia</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Drought</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Pacitan</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Disasters</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Agriculture</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Land use</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Pacitan Regency is a region in East Java Province with varied landforms and high disaster potential, including drought. The drought hazard in this region has not yet been determined. This study was conducted to analyze the potential of drought in Pacitan Regency in 2018 with the previous two decades (1998 and 2008) to predict future droughts. The study also focused on verifying how land-use changes impact drought potential. Mapping drought potential was based on the Ministry of Forestry method and was modified for this study. Drought potential was determined by scoring features and analyzing with a weighted overlay. Reference parameters and patterns of land-use change, as determined by Landsat 5, 7, and 8 satellite imagery, were analyzed. Then, the changing pattern was used to predict future 2030 land-use patterns using business as usual (BAU) analysis. For comparison, a land-use analysis was also done using the land capability class (LCC) and regional spatial plan (RSP). Data was validated using a confusion matrix. The accuracy of the drought estimation for Pacitan Regency was 75%. The results showed that the drought potential high and very-high level risk groups increased. The increase occurred due to changes in land use, specifically land management and plant species selection. Based on the results of the predicting BAU analysis, the level of potential of drought will increase by 2030. The regional spatial plan (RSP) and LCC analysis determined that, with no drought intervention, drought hazard in Pacitan Regency will increase.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Universitas Sebelas Maret</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2020-06-29</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://jurnal.uns.ac.id/tanah/article/view/35688</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20961/stjssa.v17i1.35688</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">SAINS TANAH - Journal of Soil Science and Agroclimatology; Vol. 17 No. 1 (2020): June; 7-15</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2356-1424</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1412-3606</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.20961/stjssa.v17i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://jurnal.uns.ac.id/tanah/article/view/35688/27485</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2020 Istika Nita, Aditya Nugraha Putra, Alia Febrianingtyas</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>