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Development of Energy System Modeling to Forecast 2060 Oil and Gas Demand in The Household Sector of East Kalimantan Using Bottom-Up Method

Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas · Vol. 48 No. 1 (2025) · hlm. 159–177

DOI
10.29017/scog.v48i1.1732
ISSN
2541-0520, 2089-3361
Terbit
2025-03-14
Penerbit
Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstrak

Household sector is significantly influenced by population and economic factors, which are two key variables in energy consumption projections. For example, the selection of East Kalimantan as the location for the Nusantara Capital City through Law Number 3 of 2022 increased the household energy consumption in the area. It was observed that cooking and electricity needs were dominated by the usage of oil and gas, leading to the need for energy system modeling to design appropriate energy policies, avoid dependence on fossil fuels, and control CO2 emissions in the future. Therefore, this research aims to forecast oil and gas demand of households up to 2060 based on several scenarios. A bottom-up method was dynamically connected to multiple variables for the forecast due to its ability to provide essential feedback loops, delays, and interactions required for energy system. The results showed that Business as Usual (BaU) scenario led to 28,96 million Barrel Oil Equivalent (BOE) and 8,09 million tons of emission in 2060 while Indonesian Capital City (IKN) scenario had 35,65 million and 9,8 million tons respectively. It was further reported that low carbon (LC) scenario produced 3,5 million tons of emissions.

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  • National Research and Innovation Agency
  • Indonesia Defense University
  • Bandung Institute of Technology
  • Swiss German University
  • University of Indonesia
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Novena Damar AsriIndonesia Defense University2
Evita Herawati LegowoSwiss German University1
Herma Yudhi IrwantoNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Zainal Abidin SahabuddinIndonesia Defense University1
Romie Oktovianus BuraIndonesia Defense University1
Endro ArtonoNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Arif Nur HakimNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Ratno NuryadiNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Rika AndiartiNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Lilis MarianiNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Sjafrie SjamsoeddinIndonesia Defense University1
Herlina Juni Risma SaragihIndonesia Defense University1
Budi Susilo SoepandjiUniversity of Indonesia1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.lemigas.esdm.go.id/index.php/SCOG/oai, pertama di-harvest 10 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 10 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Development of Energy System Modeling to Forecast 2060 Oil and Gas Demand in The Household Sector of East Kalimantan Using Bottom-Up Method</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Jumardi, Andi</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Yusgiantoro, Purnomo</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Siagian, Utjok</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">CO2 emission</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">energy system modeling</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">energy transition</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">oil and gas demand</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">system dynamic</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Household sector is significantly influenced by population and economic factors, which are two key variables in energy consumption projections. For example, the selection of East Kalimantan as the location for the Nusantara Capital City through Law Number 3 of 2022 increased the household energy consumption in the area. It was observed that cooking and electricity needs were dominated by the usage of oil and gas, leading to the need for energy system modeling to design appropriate energy policies, avoid dependence on fossil fuels, and control CO2 emissions in the future. Therefore, this research aims to forecast oil and gas demand of households up to 2060 based on several scenarios. A bottom-up method was dynamically connected to multiple variables for the forecast due to its ability to provide essential feedback loops, delays, and interactions required for energy system. The results showed that Business as Usual (BaU) scenario led to 28,96 million Barrel Oil Equivalent (BOE) and 8,09 million tons of emission in 2060 while Indonesian Capital City (IKN) scenario had 35,65 million and 9,8 million tons respectively. It was further reported that low carbon (LC) scenario produced 3,5 million tons of emissions.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-03-14</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.lemigas.esdm.go.id/index.php/SCOG/article/view/1732</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.29017/scog.v48i1.1732</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas; Vol. 48 No. 1 (2025); 159-177</dc:source>
	<dc:source xml:lang="id">Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas; Vol 48 No 1 (2025); 159-177</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2541-0520</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2089-3361</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.lemigas.esdm.go.id/index.php/SCOG/article/view/1732/1362</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 © Copyright by Authors. Published by LEMIGAS</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
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