PENGARUH PENDAPATAN TREASURY DEPOSIT FACILITY (TDF) DAN PEMBIAYAAN DAERAH TERHADAP REALISASI BELANJA MODAL PEMERINTAH DAERAH (STUDI PADA KABUPATEN YALIMO, YAHUKIMO, DAN NDUGA)

Abstract

Regional capital expenditure holds a strategic role in driving infrastructure development, particularly in areas with limited fiscal capacity. This condition is evident in Yalimo, Yahukimo, and Nduga regencies, three regions in Papua Pegunungan whose capital expenditure share has lagged behind the provincial and national averages over the past decade, even as Treasury Deposit Facility (TDF) revenue keeps rising. This gap forms the starting point of the study, which aims to examine the influence of TDF revenue and regional financing on the proportion of capital expenditure, to map the tendency of local governments to use regional financing, and to formulate realistic policy efforts for local governments. An embedded mixed methods design was applied, with panel data regression as the primary analysis on data from the three regencies over 2015–2024, supported by semi-structured interviews with regional financial officers to deepen the interpretation. Through a series of Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests, the Random Effect Model was selected as the estimation model that best fits the data structure. The estimation results show that neither TDF revenue nor regional financing significantly affects the proportion of capital expenditure, whereas locally generated revenue (PAD) turns out to be the only variable with a positive and relatively consistent, though weakly significant, effect. The interview findings reinforce this, revealing that TDF is still regarded as a technical cash management instrument rather than a development financing source, while regional financing is rarely used because of fiscal caution, limited institutional capacity, and inadequate project readiness. Based on these findings, strengthening capital expenditure in the three regencies is considered more realistic through optimizing PAD, restructuring the expenditure composition, improving project planning quality, and strengthening interagency coordination, rather than merely adding fiscal instruments. Keywords: capital expenditure; panel data; papua pegunungan; regional financing; treasury deposit facility.