Analisis Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Inflasi terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Kota Jayapura Tahun 2006-2025

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of economic growth and inflation on labor absorption in Jayapura City during the period 2006–2025. This research employs a quantitative approach using secondary time-series data obtained from official publications of the Central Bureau of Statistics of Jayapura City, analyzed using multiple linear regression with a double-log model assisted by EViews 12 software. Prior to regression estimation, stationarity tests using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, and classical assumption tests, including normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation tests, were conducted to ensure the model met the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator criteria. The results show that partially, economic growth has a positive and significant effect on labor absorption with a regression coefficient of 0.190972 and a probability of 0.0004, meaning that every 1 percent increase in the economic growth rate will increase the labor absorption growth rate by an average of 0.190972 percent. Inflation has a negative but insignificant effect with a coefficient of -0.031695 and a probability of 0.5096, indicating that structural factors such as the dominance of the government and service sectors as well as the role of the Special Autonomy Fund weaken the transmission of inflation to the labor market. Simultaneously, economic growth and inflation significantly affect labor absorption with an F-statistic value of 15.70809 and a probability of 0.000137, while the R-squared value of 0.648878 indicates that both variables are able to explain 64.89 percent of the variation in labor absorption, with the remaining 35.11 percent explained by other variables outside the model. Thus, economic growth is proven to be the main driver of job creation in Jayapura City, while inflation has a weak influence, so integrated policies between encouraging economic growth and maintaining price stability are urgently needed to create broad and sustainable employment opportunities. Keywords: Labor Absorption, Economic Growth, Inflation, Multiple Linear Regression, Jayapura City