Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Suku Bunga, dan Inflasi terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia Tahun 2016-2025

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the partial effect of the rupiah exchange rate, interest rates, and inflation on Indonesia's trade balance, to examine the simultaneous effect of these three variables on Indonesia's trade balance, and to identify the most dominant variable influencing Indonesia's trade balance during the period 2016–2025. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data in the form of annual time series data obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and the World Bank, with a total of ten annual observations. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation, supported by classical assumption tests including normality test, multicollinearity test, heteroscedasticity test, and autocorrelation test, as well as hypothesis testing through partial test (t-test), simultaneous test (F-test), and coefficient of determination (R²). The results indicate that partially, the rupiah exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's trade balance, while interest rates have a negative but insignificant effect and inflation has a positive but insignificant effect. Simultaneously, the rupiah exchange rate, interest rates, and inflation do not have a significant effect on Indonesia's trade balance. The coefficient of determination indicates that a large portion of the variation in Indonesia's trade balance can be explained by the three variables, while the remainder is influenced by other factors outside the research model. The rupiah exchange rate is the most dominant variable affecting Indonesia's trade balance as it is the only variable that has a positive and significant partial effect. Keywords: Rupiah Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Inflation, Trade Balance