Melola Discovery

← Melola Discovery

Open access Jurnal

K-Means clustering of crime and socioeconomic factors as a basis for public policy formulation in Indonesia

Tamalanrea: Journal of Government and Development (JGD) · Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026) · pp. 51–65

DOI
10.69816/jgd.v3i1.48733
ISSN
3047-4116
Published
2026-04-17
Publisher
Department of Government Science, Hasanuddin University
Language
en
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0

Abstract

Crime is a multidimensional social phenomenon that is closely associated with regional socioeconomic conditions. This study aims to classify the 34 provinces of Indonesia based on combined crime and socioeconomic indicators using the K-Means clustering method to support evidence-based public policy formulation. The analysis utilised secondary data obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), comprising three crime indicators—narcotics-related crimes, theft, and physical violence—and three socioeconomic indicators: the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR), Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), and the Human Development Index (HDI). Prior to clustering, all variables were standardised, and the optimal number of clusters was determined using the Elbow and Silhouette methods, which identified a two-cluster solution (K = 2). The results revealed substantial disparities in crime and socioeconomic characteristics across provinces. Cluster 1, consisting of DKI Jakarta, North Sumatra, West Java, and East Java, exhibited higher levels of crime, economic activity, and unemployment. In contrast, Cluster 0 comprised the remaining provinces and was characterised by lower crime rates and less intensive socioeconomic dynamics. The findings indicate that provinces with higher unemployment and greater economic concentration tend to experience higher crime rates, supporting strain theory and previous empirical studies. This study contributes to the literature by integrating multiple crime and socioeconomic indicators within an unsupervised machine learning framework to identify provincial typologies that can inform differentiated, place-based policies for crime prevention and regional development in Indonesia.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

3 authors · 3 co-authorship links

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Biyan Mahesa AlbianazwaAffiliation unknown1
Deliana Maulida AhsantiAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jgd/oai, first harvested 2 Nov 2026, last seen 2 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc)
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en">K-Means clustering of crime and socioeconomic factors as a basis for public policy formulation in Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Thufailah, Karina Khansa</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Crime</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Socioeconomic Factors</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">K-Means Clustering</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Public Policy</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Unemployment</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">GRDP</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">HDI</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Crime is a multidimensional social phenomenon that is closely associated with regional socioeconomic conditions. This study aims to classify the 34 provinces of Indonesia based on combined crime and socioeconomic indicators using the K-Means clustering method to support evidence-based public policy formulation. The analysis utilised secondary data obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), comprising three crime indicators—narcotics-related crimes, theft, and physical violence—and three socioeconomic indicators: the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR), Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), and the Human Development Index (HDI). Prior to clustering, all variables were standardised, and the optimal number of clusters was determined using the Elbow and Silhouette methods, which identified a two-cluster solution (K = 2). The results revealed substantial disparities in crime and socioeconomic characteristics across provinces. Cluster 1, consisting of DKI Jakarta, North Sumatra, West Java, and East Java, exhibited higher levels of crime, economic activity, and unemployment. In contrast, Cluster 0 comprised the remaining provinces and was characterised by lower crime rates and less intensive socioeconomic dynamics. The findings indicate that provinces with higher unemployment and greater economic concentration tend to experience higher crime rates, supporting strain theory and previous empirical studies. This study contributes to the literature by integrating multiple crime and socioeconomic indicators within an unsupervised machine learning framework to identify provincial typologies that can inform differentiated, place-based policies for crime prevention and regional development in Indonesia.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Government Science, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-04-17</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jgd/article/view/48733</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.69816/jgd.v3i1.48733</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Tamalanrea: Journal of Government and Development (JGD); Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026): APRIL 2026; 51-65</dc:source>
	<dc:source>3047-4116</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.69816/jgd.v3i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jgd/article/view/48733/14535</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2026 Karina Khansa Thufailah</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>