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Ecological Disaster in Northern Sumatra: How Extreme Rainfall and Land-Cover Disturbance Triggered Widespread Flash Flooding

Jurnal Penelitian Kehutanan Wallacea · Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025) · pp. 111–121

DOI
10.24259/jpkwallacea.v14i2.48907
ISSN
2407-7860, 2302-299X
Published
2025-12-30
Publisher
Foresty Faculty of Hasanuddin University
Language
en

Abstract

In November 2025, Northern Sumatra experienced one of the most extreme flood disasters in recent history, triggered by a rare combination of sustained high-intensity rainfall and long-term land-cover disturbance. Using satellite-based rainfall estimates, historical rainfall records, and land-cover change analysis, this study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of the event. The rainfall produced over 950 mm within four days, with daily accumulation exceeding 390 mm and hourly peaks surpassing 40 mm/hr. Statistical analysis using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution estimated a return period of approximately 192 years for the daily maximum. Land-cover analysis revealed extensive deforestation between 1990 and 2024, including in designated protection and conservation forest zones. Flood impacts were concentrated in watersheds with high forest loss and recent land disturbance, particularly in Aceh and North Sumatra. This study highlights how compounding hydroclimatic extremes and upstream land degradation can significantly amplify flood risk. The findings underscore the importance of integrating forest conservation and multi-day rainfall indicators into regional flood risk assessments and early warning systems.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

37 authors · 135 co-authorship links

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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Putu Oka NgakanAffiliation unknown5
Putu Supadma PutraAffiliation unknown5
Syamsu RijalAffiliation unknown4
Andi Siady HamzahAffiliation unknown3
Risma illa MaulanyAffiliation unknown2
Chairil AAffiliation unknown2
Samuel A. PaembonanAffiliation unknown1
Syamsuddin MillangAffiliation unknown1
Leny RachmawatiAffiliation unknown1
Andang Suryana SomaAffiliation unknown1
A. MujetahidAffiliation unknown1
Muh. IhsanAffiliation unknown1
Fardi Ali SyahdarAffiliation unknown1
Arif KoesharyadiAffiliation unknown1
Fadly SuhatiAffiliation unknown1
Kaimuddin KaimuddinAffiliation unknown1
Wardiman Mas'udAffiliation unknown1
Nur HasanahAffiliation unknown1
Andi ArjunaAffiliation unknown1
Achmad HimawanAffiliation unknown1
Vidya Amaliatul Jannah YusufAffiliation unknown1
Tifanny Dewi WijayaAffiliation unknown1
Try ArdiansyahAffiliation unknown1
Afandi AhmadAffiliation unknown1
ChairilAffiliation unknown1
Revalina Theresia SinagaAffiliation unknown1
Helen Natalia KasangAffiliation unknown1
Yulanda Angel TangdilintinAffiliation unknown1
Anugrahandini NatsirAffiliation unknown1
Nurul Muchlisah BasriAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/wallacea/oai, first harvested 2 Nov 2026, last seen 2 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Ecological Disaster in Northern Sumatra: How Extreme Rainfall and Land-Cover Disturbance Triggered Widespread Flash Flooding </dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Nasri, Nasri</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Nursaputra, Munajat</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Arif, Abdur Rahman</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Dwiyani, Risye</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Chania, Lady</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Agastya, Ida Bagus Oka</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Arif, Dian Adhetya Arif</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Deforestation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">ecological disaster</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">extreme rainfall</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Flash flood</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">land-cover change</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">In November 2025, Northern Sumatra experienced one of the most extreme flood disasters in recent history, triggered by a rare combination of sustained high-intensity rainfall and long-term land-cover disturbance. Using satellite-based rainfall estimates, historical rainfall records, and land-cover change analysis, this study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of the event. The rainfall produced over 950 mm within four days, with daily accumulation exceeding 390 mm and hourly peaks surpassing 40 mm/hr. Statistical analysis using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution estimated a return period of approximately 192 years for the daily maximum. Land-cover analysis revealed extensive deforestation between 1990 and 2024, including in designated protection and conservation forest zones. Flood impacts were concentrated in watersheds with high forest loss and recent land disturbance, particularly in Aceh and North Sumatra. This study highlights how compounding hydroclimatic extremes and upstream land degradation can significantly amplify flood risk. The findings underscore the importance of integrating forest conservation and multi-day rainfall indicators into regional flood risk assessments and early warning systems.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Foresty Faculty of Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-12-30</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/wallacea/article/view/48907</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.24259/jpkwallacea.v14i2.48907</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Penelitian Kehutanan Wallacea; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025); 111-121</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2407-7860</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2302-299X</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/wallacea/article/view/48907/13939</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Jurnal Penelitian Kehutanan Wallacea</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>