Eksplorasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Nilai Tukar USD Terhadap Rupiah

Widodo, Edy; Destia, Bella; Putri, Febi Permata; Ramadhan, Riski Pratama

doi:10.20956/ejsa.vi.18849

Jurnal

Eksplorasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Nilai Tukar USD Terhadap Rupiah

ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application · Vol. 3 No. 2 (2022) · pp. 86–93

DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.vi.18849
ISSN: 2721-379X, 2721-3803
Published: 2022-07-02
Publisher: Hasanuddin University
Language: en

Abstract

Currency exchange rate is the price of one unit in domestic currency against foreign currencies. Exchange rates change over time depending on the supply and demand for foreign exchange relative to the domestic currency. This study aims to predict changes in the USD exchange rate against the Rupiah in 2021 using the DES method. The use of the DES method in this forecasting takes into account that the data to be used has a trend which is characterized by the tendency of the data to move up and down over a long period of time. The DES method can also determine the trend equation for the second most extensive smoothing data through a smoothing process. This forecasting system captures patterns from past data and then uses it to project future data. The results of forecasting the USD exchange rate against the Rupiah from 2021 to 2022 show that the exchange rate ranges from IDR 14,512 to IDR 14,744 with a MAPE value of 1.93%.

Keywords

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12 authors · 20 co-authorship links

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Co-author	Organisation	Joint articles
Bayu Galih Prianda	Affiliation unknown	1
Mujiati Dwi Kartikasari	Affiliation unknown	1
Anggun Puspita Sari	Affiliation unknown	1
Kariyam Kariyam	Affiliation unknown	1
Feri Wijayanto	Affiliation unknown	1
Muhammad Bariklana	Affiliation unknown	1
Riza Amelia Choerunnisa	Affiliation unknown	1
Rosiana Rahma Dewi	Affiliation unknown	1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/ESTIMASI/oai, first harvested 2 Nov 2026, last seen 2 Nov 2026.

Original metadata (oai_dc)

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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Eksplorasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Nilai Tukar USD Terhadap Rupiah</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Widodo, Edy</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Destia, Bella</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Putri, Febi Permata</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Ramadhan, Riski Pratama</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Double Exponential Smoothing</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Exchange Rate</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Forecasting</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Currency exchange rate is the price of one unit in domestic currency against foreign currencies. Exchange rates change over time depending on the supply and demand for foreign exchange relative to the domestic currency. This study aims to predict changes in the USD exchange rate against the Rupiah in 2021 using the DES method. The use of the DES method in this forecasting takes into account that the data to be used has a trend which is characterized by the tendency of the data to move up and down over a long period of time. The DES method can also determine the trend equation for the second most extensive smoothing data through a smoothing process. This forecasting system captures patterns from past data and then uses it to project future data. The results of forecasting the USD exchange rate against the Rupiah from 2021 to 2022 show that the exchange rate ranges from IDR 14,512 to IDR 14,744 with a MAPE value of 1.93%.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2022-07-02</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/ESTIMASI/article/view/18849</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/ejsa.vi.18849</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application; Vol. 3, No. 2, Juli, 2022 : Estimasi; 86-93</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2721-379X</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2721-3803</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/ESTIMASI/article/view/18849/8377</dc:relation>
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