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Analisis Peluang Steady State Pada Kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia Menggunakan Rantai Markov

ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application · Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023) · pp. 89–99

DOI
10.20956/ejsa.vi.24802
ISSN
2721-379X, 2721-3803
Published
2023-02-14
Publisher
Hasanuddin University
Language
en

Abstract

Covid-19 in Indonesia began to be recorded on March 2, 2020 with the number of positive patient cases as many as 2 people with the passage of time Covid-19 cases in Indonesia are always increasing. To see the development of Covid-19 cases in the future period, the opportunity for the number of Covid-19 cases can be used using the Markov chain. The Markov chain method is carried out using a transition probability matrix which is seen from the number of additions to positive Covid-19 patients in a steady state or a situation for a long period of time. Based on the results of the range of additions to the number of positive cases of Covid-19, 6 states were used. Furthermore, the calculation of the Markov Chain in the stationary state of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia after 328 days or 11 months obtained the probability of each state, namely state 1 of 0.0005, state 2 of 0.0069, state 3 of 0.1707, state 4 of 0.1462, state 5 of 0.1884, and state 6 is 0.4873. Prediction of the addition of positive Covid-19 patients obtained results as many as 2058 patients in state 5 for July 1, 2022 with actual data as many as 2049 patients.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

35 authors · 99 co-authorship links

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  • Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Nirwan IlyasAffiliation unknown3
La Podje TalangkoAffiliation unknown2
Sitti SahrimanAffiliation unknown2
Raupong RaupongAffiliation unknown2
Andi Isna YunitaAffiliation unknown2
Anna IslamiyatiAffiliation unknown2
Rusydah KhaeratiAffiliation unknown1
Vieri KoerniawanAffiliation unknown1
Grace Oktavia YusufAffiliation unknown1
Fitriatusakiah FitriatusakiahAffiliation unknown1
Andi Tenri Riski AmaliaAffiliation unknown1
Georgina Maria TinungkiAffiliation unknown1
Novilia JaoAffiliation unknown1
Anisa AnisaSultan Ageng Tirtayasa University1
Najiha AlimatunAffiliation unknown1
Nasrah SirajangAffiliation unknown1
Reski AmalahAffiliation unknown1
Nur Fuadil Maqnun WahabAffiliation unknown1
Nurtit SunusiAffiliation unknown1
Erna Tri HerdianiAffiliation unknown1
Riska RasyidAffiliation unknown1
Ainul FajriAffiliation unknown1
Anisa Haura Salsa Fatih YusufAffiliation unknown1
Andi Ummi Melin Aicha AichaAffiliation unknown1
Wa Ode Sitti Amni AmniAffiliation unknown1
Amalia AndrianingrumAffiliation unknown1
- SiswantoAffiliation unknown1
Ayu Pratika PutriAffiliation unknown1
Annurial Fitrayah TaufiqAffiliation unknown1
Ahmad Maulana SyarifAffiliation unknown1
Nurmimie KharinaAffiliation unknown1
Samsir Aditya AniaAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/ESTIMASI/oai, first harvested 2 Nov 2026, last seen 2 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Analisis Peluang Steady State Pada Kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia Menggunakan Rantai Markov</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Haya, Ika Pratiwi</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Jaya, Andi Kresna</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sunusi, Nurtiti</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Covid-19</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Increase of Positive Cases Covid-19</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Markov Chain</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Prediction</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Stationary</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Covid-19 in Indonesia began to be recorded on March 2, 2020 with the number of positive patient cases as many as 2 people with the passage of time Covid-19 cases in Indonesia are always increasing. To see the development of Covid-19 cases in the future period, the opportunity for the number of Covid-19 cases can be used using the Markov chain. The Markov chain method is carried out using a transition probability matrix which is seen from the number of additions to positive Covid-19 patients in a steady state or a situation for a long period of time. Based on the results of the range of additions to the number of positive cases of Covid-19, 6 states were used. Furthermore, the calculation of the Markov Chain in the stationary state of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia after 328 days or 11 months obtained the probability of each state, namely state 1 of 0.0005, state 2 of 0.0069, state 3 of 0.1707, state 4 of 0.1462, state 5 of 0.1884 , and state 6 is 0.4873. Prediction of the addition of positive Covid-19 patients obtained results as many as 2058 patients in state 5 for July 1, 2022 with actual data as many as 2049 patients.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2023-02-14</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/ESTIMASI/article/view/24802</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/ejsa.vi.24802</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application; Vol. 4, No. 1, Januari, 2023 : Estimasi; 89-99</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2721-379X</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2721-3803</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/ESTIMASI/article/view/24802/9336</dc:relation>
</oai_dc:dc>