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Analysis of Flood Vulnerability and Rainfall Changes in the Angke-Pesanggrahan Watershed using Spatial Mapping

JURNAL GEOCELEBES · Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026) · pp. 12–33

DOI
10.70561/geocelebes.v10i1.48347
ISSN
2579-5546, 2579-5821
Published
2026-04-01
Publisher
Departemen Geofisika, FMIPA - Universitas Hasanuddin, Makassar
Language
en
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0

Abstract

This study analyzes flood vulnerability in the Angke-Pesanggrahan Watershed, Jakarta, which faces increased risks due to land-use changes. The study aims to calculate the 50-year return period flood discharge, map flood-prone zones, and formulate mitigation recommendations using spatial mapping. A quantitative approach was employed, analyzing 15 years of rainfall data from five stations. Methodology included data consistency testing, Spearman’s correlation, stationarity, and outlier identification, followed by regional rainfall analysis using Thiessen Polygons. The Log Pearson Type III distribution was applied for frequency analysis, and the Nakayasu Synthetic Unit Hydrograph method estimated flood discharge. Flood-prone zones were mapped using scoring and overlay techniques in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Results show that the 50-year flood discharge reaches 1.128 m3/s, exceeding existing river capacity. Mapping simulations identified flood depths of 3–6 meters in downstream areas, with high-risk zones concentrated in Northern Kembangan, Kedaung Kali Angke, Kapuk Muara, Kamal Muara, Eastern Cengkareng, and Northern Kedoya, where surface runoff contributes up to 90%. Spatial analysis categorized 257.18 km2 as non-prone, 92.14 km2 as moderately prone, 75.75 km2 as prone, and 58.57 km2 as highly prone. This study concludes that the Angke-Pesanggrahan Watershed, particularly the Cengkareng Drain section, requires urgent technical intervention, including river normalization and catchment area optimization. These findings provide a crucial spatial database for sustainable flood mitigation and risk-based decision-making in urban planning.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

7 authors · 13 co-authorship links · 4 across different organisations

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  • Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung
  • University of Copenhagen
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
İrwandani IrwandaniUniversitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung1
Agus PahrudinUniversitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung1
Erva TriyanaUniversitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung1
Chairul AnwarUniversitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/geocelebes/oai, first harvested 3 Nov 2026, last seen 3 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Analysis of Flood Vulnerability and Rainfall Changes in the Angke-Pesanggrahan Watershed using Spatial Mapping</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Fitria, Ratu Kenanga</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Ruhiat, Yayat</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Oktarisa, Yuvita</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="id">Fitria, Ratu Kenanga</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Angke-Pesanggrahan Watershed</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Disaster Mitigation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">HSS Nakayasu</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Q50 Flood Discharge</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Spatial Mapping</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">This study analyzes flood vulnerability in the Angke-Pesanggrahan Watershed, Jakarta, which faces increased risks due to land-use changes. The study aims to calculate the 50-year return period flood discharge, map flood-prone zones, and formulate mitigation recommendations using spatial mapping. A quantitative approach was employed, analyzing 15 years of rainfall data from five stations. Methodology included data consistency testing, Spearman’s correlation, stationarity, and outlier identification, followed by regional rainfall analysis using Thiessen Polygons. The Log Pearson Type III distribution was applied for frequency analysis, and the Nakayasu Synthetic Unit Hydrograph method estimated flood discharge. Flood-prone zones were mapped using scoring and overlay techniques in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Results show that the 50-year flood discharge reaches 1.128 m3/s, exceeding existing river capacity. Mapping simulations identified flood depths of 3–6 meters in downstream areas, with high-risk zones concentrated in Northern Kembangan, Kedaung Kali Angke, Kapuk Muara, Kamal Muara, Eastern Cengkareng, and Northern Kedoya, where surface runoff contributes up to 90%. Spatial analysis categorized 257.18 km2 as non-prone, 92.14 km2 as moderately prone, 75.75 km2 as prone, and 58.57 km2 as highly prone. This study concludes that the Angke-Pesanggrahan Watershed, particularly the Cengkareng Drain section, requires urgent technical intervention, including river normalization and catchment area optimization. These findings provide a crucial spatial database for sustainable flood mitigation and risk-based decision-making in urban planning.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Departemen Geofisika, FMIPA - Universitas Hasanuddin, Makassar</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-04-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/geocelebes/article/view/48347</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.70561/geocelebes.v10i1.48347</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">JURNAL GEOCELEBES; Vol. 10 No. 1: April 2026; 12–33</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2579-5546</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2579-5821</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/geocelebes/article/view/48347/14255</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2026 JURNAL GEOCELEBES</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>