Analysis of the Effect of Rainfall on Lowland Rice Productivity in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

Dewi, Hesty Sukma; Prapitasari, Meilan; Yusuf, Erhin Aryani Aulia; Aulia, Andi Arum; Salamah, Salamah

doi:10.37149/ijaserd.v6i1.3269

Akses terbuka Jurnal

Analysis of the Effect of Rainfall on Lowland Rice Productivity in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

International Journal of Agricultural Social Economics and Rural Development (Ijaserd) · Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026) · hlm. 64–72

DOI: 10.37149/ijaserd.v6i1.3269
ISSN: 2774-9126
Terbit: 2026-09-30
Penerbit: Department of Agribusiness, Halu Oleo University Jointly with Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (PERHEPI/ISAE)
Bahasa: eng
Lisensi: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

Abstrak

Variability in precipitation may impact water supply and, in turn, alter the efficacy of lowland rice cultivation. This research examined long-term changes in precipitation and rice yield and evaluated their statistical correlation in Southeast Sulawesi from 1990 to 2025. We assessed yearly secondary data, including 36 observations, using descriptive analysis and basic linear regression. Precipitation varied from 618.50 to 3,273.50 mm, while rice production ranged between 2.699 and 4.684 tons per hectare. The regression analysis revealed a positive and statistically significant relationship between precipitation and rice yield (R = 0.475, R2 = 0.226, F = 9.904, α = 0.003). Precipitation explained 22.6% of the observed fluctuations in production, suggesting that most productivity variance was driven by factors outside this single predictive model. Residual diagnostics showed no substantial non-normality or heteroscedasticity. The Durbin–Watson score of 0.939 suggested possible positive serial correlation, necessitating careful interpretation of the regression findings. The results suggest that precipitation influences fluctuations in lowland rice yield; however, yearly rainfall alone does not sufficiently account for productivity changes. Rice cultivation strategies in Southeast Sulawesi must therefore incorporate rainfall variability, effective water management, and other production-related factors.

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Universitas Halu Oleo
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Tampilkan sebagai tabel

Rekan penulis	Organisasi	Artikel bersama
Samsul Alam Fyka	Universitas Halu Oleo	2
Muhammad Aswar Limi	Universitas Halu Oleo	2
Sitti Hajrah	Afiliasi tidak diketahui	2
Munirwan Zani	Universitas Halu Oleo	1
Bahari Abdullah	Universitas Halu Oleo	1
Fitriaman Fitriaman	Afiliasi tidak diketahui	1
Edi Waluyo	Afiliasi tidak diketahui	1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ejournal.agribisnis.uho.ac.id/index.php/ijaserd/oai, pertama di-harvest 4 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 4 Nov 2026.

Metadata asli (oai_dc)

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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Analysis of the Effect of Rainfall on Lowland Rice Productivity in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Dewi, Hesty Sukma</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Prapitasari, Meilan</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Yusuf, Erhin Aryani Aulia</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Aulia, Andi Arum</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Salamah, Salamah</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">linear regression</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">lowland rice</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">productivity</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">rainfall</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Southeast Sulawesi</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Variability in precipitation may impact water supply and, in turn, alter the efficacy of lowland rice cultivation. This research examined long-term changes in precipitation and rice yield and evaluated their statistical correlation in Southeast Sulawesi from 1990 to 2025. We assessed yearly secondary data, including 36 observations, using descriptive analysis and basic linear regression. Precipitation varied from 618.50 to 3,273.50 mm, while rice production ranged between 2.699 and 4.684 tons per hectare. The regression analysis revealed a positive and statistically significant relationship between precipitation and rice yield (R = 0.475, R2 = 0.226, F = 9.904, α = 0.003). Precipitation explained 22.6% of the observed fluctuations in production, suggesting that most productivity variance was driven by factors outside this single predictive model. Residual diagnostics showed no substantial non-normality or heteroscedasticity. The Durbin–Watson score of 0.939 suggested possible positive serial correlation, necessitating careful interpretation of the regression findings. The results suggest that precipitation influences fluctuations in lowland rice yield; however, yearly rainfall alone does not sufficiently account for productivity changes. Rice cultivation strategies in Southeast Sulawesi must therefore incorporate rainfall variability, effective water management, and other production-related factors.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Department of Agribusiness, Halu Oleo University  Jointly with  Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (PERHEPI/ISAE)</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-09-30</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ejournal.agribisnis.uho.ac.id/index.php/ijaserd/article/view/3269</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.37149/ijaserd.v6i1.3269</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">International Journal of Agricultural Social Economics and Rural Development (Ijaserd); Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026); 64 - 72</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2774-9126</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.37149/ijaserd.v6i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ejournal.agribisnis.uho.ac.id/index.php/ijaserd/article/view/3269/555</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2026 Hesty Sukma Dewi, Meilan Prapitasari, Erhin Aryani Aulia Yusuf, Andi Arum Aulia, Salamah </dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/</dc:rights>
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