Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants and Forecasting of Indonesia’s Pulp Exports to China for the Period 2005–2030

Syam, Muh Arief; Nugroho, Bramasto

doi:10.24259/jhm.v18i1.49248

Open access Jurnal

Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants and Forecasting of Indonesia’s Pulp Exports to China for the Period 2005–2030

Jurnal Hutan dan Masyarakat · Vol. UME No. 1 (2026) · pp. 15–29

DOI: 10.24259/jhm.v18i1.49248
ISSN: 2613-9979, 1907-5316
Published: 2026-07-15
Publisher: Fakultas Kehutanan, Universitas Hasanuddin
Language: en
License: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

Indonesia's pulp exports rely heavily on the Chinese market, which underwent structural changes due to waste import bans. This study analyzes the effects of China's GDP, international pulp prices, and exchange rates on Indonesia's pulp export value (HS 4703) to China (2005-2024) and forecasts trends through 2030. Using Log-Log multiple linear regression and ARIMA methods, the results show that China's GDP, pulp prices, and exchange rates have positive and significant effects on export values. The inelastic nature of these variables indicates pulp is an essential, hard-to-substitute industrial material. The ARIMA(0,1,0) with drift model projects a stable increase in exports from USD 1.9 billion in 2025 to USD 2.3 billion in 2030. The study recommends that stakeholders ensure sustainable raw material supply through Industrial Plantation Forests (HTI) to meet this long-term demand growth.

Keywords

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13 authors · 25 co-authorship links

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Co-author	Organisation	Joint articles
Hariadi Kartodihardjo	Affiliation unknown	3
Rinekso Soekmadi	Affiliation unknown	2
Messalina L Salampessy	Affiliation unknown	1
Herry Purnomo	Affiliation unknown	1
Sudirman Daeng Massiri	Affiliation unknown	1
Oding Affandi	Affiliation unknown	1
Sulistya Ekawati	Affiliation unknown	1
Dewi Untari	Affiliation unknown	1
Hardjanto Hardjanto	Affiliation unknown	1
Budi Budi	Affiliation unknown	1
Rina Mardiana	Affiliation unknown	1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jhm/oai, first harvested 4 Nov 2026, last seen 4 Nov 2026.

Original metadata (oai_dc)

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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants and Forecasting of Indonesia’s Pulp Exports to China for the Period 2005–2030</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Syam, Muh Arief</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Nugroho, Bramasto</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Pulp export</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">China</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">ARIMA</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">macroeconomic determinants</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">forestry trade</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Indonesia's pulp exports rely heavily on the Chinese market, which underwent structural changes due to waste import bans. This study analyzes the effects of China's GDP, international pulp prices, and exchange rates on Indonesia's pulp export value (HS 4703) to China (2005-2024) and forecasts trends through 2030. Using Log-Log multiple linear regression and ARIMA methods, the results show that China's GDP, pulp prices, and exchange rates have positive and significant effects on export values. The inelastic nature of these variables indicates pulp is an essential, hard-to-substitute industrial material. The ARIMA(0,1,0) with drift model projects a stable increase in exports from USD 1.9 billion in 2025 to USD 2.3 billion in 2030. The study recommends that stakeholders ensure sustainable raw material supply through Industrial Plantation Forests (HTI) to meet this long-term demand growth.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Fakultas Kehutanan, Universitas Hasanuddin</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-07-15</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jhm/article/view/49248</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.24259/jhm.v18i1.49248</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Hutan dan Masyarakat; VOLUME 18 NO 1, JULI 2026; 15-29</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2613-9979</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1907-5316</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jhm/article/view/49248/14718</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2026 Muh Arief Syam, Bramasto Nugroho</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
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