Jurnal SINTA 3
PERBANDINGAN METODE SEASONAL ARIMA DAN EXTREME LEARNING MACHINE PADA PERAMALAN JUMLAH WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA KE BALI
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 15 No. 4 (2021) · pp. 639–650
- ISSN
- 2615-3017, 1978-7227
- Published
- 2021-12-01
- Publisher
- PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
- Language
- eng
Abstract
Bali Island of the Gods is one of the wealth of very popular tourist destinations and has the highest number of foreign tourists in Indonesia. It is very necessary to do more in-depth learning related to the projections or forecasting of foreign tourist visits to Bali at a certain period of time. Forecasting analysis used is to compare two methods, namely the Seasonal ARIMA method (SARIMA) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). The SARIMA method is a statistical method commonly used in forecasting time series data that contains seasonality and has good accuracy. While the ELM method is a new learning method of artificial neural networks that has fast learning speed and good accuracy. The results obtained indicate that the Seasonal ARIMA method is a better method used to predict the number of tourists to Bali in this case, because it has a smaller forecasting MAPE value of 4.97%. While the ELM method has a forecasting MAPE value of 7.62%.
Collaboration network of the authors
11 authors · 19 co-authorship links
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Show as table
| Co-author | Organisation | Joint articles |
|---|---|---|
| Bella Destia | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Febi Permata Putri | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Riski Pratama Ramadhan | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Anggun Puspita Sari | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Kariyam Kariyam | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Feri Wijayanto | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Muhammad Bariklana | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Riza Amelia Choerunnisa | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Rosiana Rahma Dewi | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.