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COMPARISON OF FORECASTING VIOLENCE CASES NUMBER AGAINST WOMEN AND CHILDREN USING DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (DES) AND AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) METHODS

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 16 No. 2 (2022) · hlm. 443–450

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol16iss2pp443-450
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Terbit
2022-06-01
Penerbit
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

Violence is something that is being widely discussed. It is due to the increasing number of victims of violence in a scope where victims should feel safe. Therefore, the researchers took this case intending to predict the number of violence cases against women and children in Jakarta so that the government can anticipate the spike in cases and evaluate the policies that will be issued in this case. The data used was from the Office for the Empowerment of Child Protection and Population Control (DPPAPP) of DKI Jakarta Province from January 2018 to October 2021 to predict the number of cases in 2022. Based on the analysis results, it is known that the number of cases of violence against women and children has decreased throughout 2022. In addition, the accuracy of the model using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method is 44.91%, and the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is 39.03%.

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  • UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
  • Badan Pusat Statistik
  • Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency
  • Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
  • National Taiwan University of Science and Technology
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Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Dian Candra Rini NovitasariUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya6
Hani KhaulasariUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya4
Moh. HafiyusholehUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya3
Nanang WidodoAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Abdulloh HamidUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Yuniar FaridaUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Shifa Amelia RachmanUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Adhim SalamianiMeteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency2
Unix Izyah ArfiantiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Diah Restu NingsihUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Dian YuliatiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Felia Dria YuliawantiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Ilmiatul MardiyahUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Dewi SulistiyawatiBadan Pusat Statistik1
Alvin Nuralif RamadantiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Indra Ariyanto WijayaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Victory Tyas Pambudi SwindiartoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Muhammad ImronUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Firman ArmunantoBadan Pusat Statistik1
Aris FananiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Ahmad Naufal DzakyUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Achmad Teguh WibowoUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Mayandah FarmitaUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Nurissaidah UlinnuhaUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Shafa Fitria Aqilah KhansaUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Achmad Fachril Yusuf AbabilUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Yahya Vigo Tri SaputraUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Anisa Nur AzizahInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Fajar SetiawanMeteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency1
Ghaluh Indah Permata SariNational Taiwan University of Science and Technology1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, pertama di-harvest 5 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">COMPARISON OF FORECASTING VIOLENCE CASES NUMBER AGAINST WOMEN AND CHILDREN USING DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (DES) AND AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) METHODS</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Fadilah, Siti Nur</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Intan, Putroue Keumala</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Utami, Wika Dianita</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Violence is something that is being widely discussed. It is due to the increasing number of victims of violence in a scope where victims should feel safe. Therefore, the researchers took this case intending to predict the number of violence cases against women and children in Jakarta so that the government can anticipate the spike in cases and evaluate the policies that will be issued in this case. The data used was from the Office for the Empowerment of Child Protection and Population Control (DPPAPP) of DKI Jakarta Province from January 2018 to October 2021 to predict the number of cases in 2022. Based on the analysis results, it is known that the number of cases of violence against women and children has decreased throughout 2022. In addition, the accuracy of the model using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method is 44.91%, and the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is 39.03%.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2022-06-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/4955</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol16iss2pp443-450</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 16 No 2 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; 443-450</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol16iss2year2022</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/4955/4471</dc:relation>
</oai_dc:dc>