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COVID-19 PROJECTIONS ON JAVA AND BALI ISLANDS INVOLVING VACCINATION AND TESTING INTERVENTIONS USING VARI-X MODEL

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 17 No. 2 (2023) · pp. 0837–0846

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol17iss2pp0837-0846
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2023-06-11
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

The Indonesian government implemented the policy of increasing vaccination and testing of Covid-19 for travel from or to the Java and Bali Islands to reduce the Covid-19 projected spread in there. As participation in these efforts, this study aims to project the Covid-19 spread measured by the active case rates by involving the intervention of vaccination and testing of Covid-19 in the two islands. Projections are performed using a vector of autoregression integrated with the exogenous variables (VARI-X) model. This model is used because it can simultaneously project the Covid-19 spread in the two islands by involving interventions of vaccination and testing of Covid-19 as exogenous variables. The most suitable model obtained is VARI-X (4, 2, 0). The mean-absolute-percentage error (MAPE) of the model for the Java and Bali Islands is 5.3027% and 3.0301%, respectively. Based on the MAPE value, the model is very accurate for projecting the future Covid-19 spread on the two islands. This accuracy can be seen practically from the Covid-19 spread projection results in the next four days, which are very close to the actual data. This research is expected to help the Indonesian government project the spread of Covid-19 on the Java and Bali Islands.

Collaboration network of the authors

24 authors · 54 co-authorship links

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  • National Research and Innovation Agency
  • Affiliation unknown
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  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Dianne Amor KusumaAffiliation unknown4
Atje Setiawan AbdullahAffiliation unknown3
Putri MonikaAffiliation unknown2
Mutik AlawiyahAffiliation unknown1
Salsabila Eka PutriAffiliation unknown1
Devi MunandarNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Syifani AkmaliahAffiliation unknown1
Christophorus SoetiknoAffiliation unknown1
Kankan ParmikantiAffiliation unknown1
Sri Adi WidodoAffiliation unknown1
Estiyan DwipriyokoAffiliation unknown1
Shabira A. AuliyazhafiraAffiliation unknown1
Fariza A. PutriAffiliation unknown1
Theresia S. NauliAffiliation unknown1
Aulia R. Al MadaniAffiliation unknown1
I Gede Nyoman Mindra JayaAffiliation unknown1
Annisa N. FalahAffiliation unknown1
Aulia Rahman Al MadaniAffiliation unknown1
Sandrina NajwaAffiliation unknown1
Gumgum DarmawanAffiliation unknown1
Ega SahertiAffiliation unknown1
Salwa Azzah ImtiyazAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">COVID-19 PROJECTIONS ON JAVA AND BALI ISLANDS  INVOLVING VACCINATION AND TESTING INTERVENTIONS  USING VARI-X MODEL</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Ibrahim, Riza Andrian</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Ruchjana, Budi Nurani</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The Indonesian government implemented the policy of increasing vaccination and testing of Covid-19 for travel from or to the Java and Bali Islands to reduce the Covid-19 projected spread in there. As participation in these efforts, this study aims to project the Covid-19 spread measured by the active case rates by involving the intervention of vaccination and testing of Covid-19 in the two islands. Projections are performed using a vector of autoregression integrated with the exogenous variables (VARI-X) model. This model is used because it can simultaneously project the Covid-19 spread in the two islands by involving interventions of vaccination and testing of Covid-19 as exogenous variables. The most suitable model obtained is VARI-X (4, 2, 0). The mean-absolute-percentage error (MAPE) of the model for the Java and Bali Islands is 5.3027% and 3.0301%, respectively. Based on the MAPE value, the model is very accurate for projecting the future Covid-19 spread on the two islands. This accuracy can be seen practically from the Covid-19 spread projection results in the next four days, which are very close to the actual data. This research is expected to help the Indonesian government project the spread of Covid-19 on the Java and Bali Islands.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2023-06-11</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/7817</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol17iss2pp0837-0846</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 17 No 2 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications; 0837-0846</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol17iss2year2023</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/7817/5945</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2023 Riza Andrian Ibrahim, Budi Nurani Ruchjana</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>