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COMPARISON OF WEIGHTED MARKOV CHAIN AND FUZZY TIME SERIES-MARKOV CHAIN METHODS IN AIR TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IN BANDA ACEH CITY

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 17 No. 3 (2023) · hlm. 1301–1312

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1301-1312
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Terbit
2023-09-30
Penerbit
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstrak

Air temperature prediction is needed for various needs such as helping plan daily activities, agricultural planning, and disaster prevention. In this research, Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method and Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain (FTS-MC) method are applied to predict the weekly air temperature in Banda Aceh city. The purpose of this study is to find out how the results of the application and comparison of the accuracy of the WMC method and the FTS-MC method on weekly air temperature prediction in Banda Aceh City. The prediction result of air temperature in Banda Aceh city using the WMC method for the next three weeks obtained an air temperature of 26,5℃. The prediction results of air temperature in Banda Aceh city using the FTS-MC method for the next three weeks obtained predicted values of 26,66℃ for the 105th week, 26,79℃ for the 106th week, and 26,83℃ for the 107th week. The MAPE accuracy level of the WMC method is 1,5% and the FTS-MC method is 1,7%. This shows that the MAPE of the WMC method is smaller than the FTS-MC method so it can be concluded that air temperature prediction using the WMC method is better than the FTS-MC method.

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  • Universitas Syiah Kuala
  • Kanazawa University
  • Organisasi berbeda
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Meutia Hanum RahmaniarUniversitas Syiah Kuala1
Zahnur ZahnurUniversitas Syiah Kuala1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, pertama di-harvest 5 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">COMPARISON OF WEIGHTED MARKOV CHAIN AND FUZZY TIME SERIES-MARKOV CHAIN METHODS IN AIR TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IN BANDA ACEH CITY</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Rusdiana, Siti</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Febriana, Diana</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Maulidi, Ikhsan</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Apriliani, Vina</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Air temperature prediction is needed for various needs such as helping plan daily activities, agricultural planning, and disaster prevention. In this research, Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method and Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain (FTS-MC) method are applied to predict the weekly air temperature in Banda Aceh city. The purpose of this study is to find out how the results of the application and comparison of the accuracy of the WMC method and the FTS-MC method on weekly air temperature prediction in Banda Aceh City. The prediction result of air temperature in Banda Aceh city using the WMC method for the next three weeks obtained an air temperature of 26,5℃. The prediction results of air temperature in Banda Aceh city using the FTS-MC method for the next three weeks obtained predicted values of 26,66℃ for the 105th week, 26,79℃ for the 106th week, and 26,83℃ for the 107th week. The MAPE accuracy level of the WMC method is 1,5% and the FTS-MC method is 1,7%. This shows that the MAPE of the WMC method is smaller than the FTS-MC method so it can be concluded that air temperature prediction using the WMC method is better than the FTS-MC method.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2023-09-30</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/7995</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1301-1312</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications; 1301-1312</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3year2023</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/7995/6544</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2023 Siti Rusdiana, Diana Febriana, Ikhsan Maulidi, Vina Apriliani</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>