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Open access Jurnal SINTA 3

TRANSFER FUNCTION AND ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING BI RATE IN INDONESIA

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 17 No. 3 (2023) · pp. 1359–1366

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1359-1366
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2023-09-30
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

Fluctuating gold prices can have an impact on various sectors of the economy. Some of the impacts of rising and falling gold prices are inflation, currency exchange rates, and the value of the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate). The data was taken from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency's official website (BPS) for the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) value. Therefore, research on the value of the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) is essential with the gold price as a control. The purpose of this study is to forecast the value of the Bank Indonesia reference interest rate (BI Rate) with a transfer function model where the input variable used is the price of gold and forecast the value of the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) with the ARIMA model. The analysis results show that the best model for forecasting the Bank Indonesia reference interest rate (BI Rate) is a transfer function model with a value of,,, and a noise series model with the MAPE value is

Collaboration network of the authors

40 authors · 112 co-authorship links · 3 across different organisations · showing the 40 most connected

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • IPB University
  • Bandung Islamic University
  • Binus University
  • Universitas Halu Oleo
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
A'yunin SofroAffiliation unknown5
Anang KurniaAffiliation unknown5
Erfiani ErfianiAffiliation unknown3
Anwar FitriantoAffiliation unknown3
Aji Hamim WigenaAffiliation unknown3
Asep SaefuddinIPB University2
Danang AriyantoAffiliation unknown2
Bagus SartonoIPB University2
Khairil Anwar NotodiputroBandung Islamic University2
Leli LatifahAffiliation unknown2
Wa Ode Rona FreyaAffiliation unknown1
Budi SusetyoAffiliation unknown1
Vera Maya SantiAffiliation unknown1
Andi Harismahyanti A.Affiliation unknown1
I Made SumertajayaAffiliation unknown1
Embay RohaetiAffiliation unknown1
Reni AmeliaAffiliation unknown1
Sitti NurhalizaAffiliation unknown1
Christiana Anggraeni PutriAffiliation unknown1
Nila LestariAffiliation unknown1
Elisa D JuliantiAffiliation unknown1
Rahmatin Nur AmaliaAffiliation unknown1
Titin YuniartyAffiliation unknown1
Riska Wahyu RomadhoniaAffiliation unknown1
Rosalina Agista RianiAffiliation unknown1
Dwi Agustin Nuriani SirodjAffiliation unknown1
Yudi Fathul AminAffiliation unknown1
Framitha Septian SubiantoroAffiliation unknown1
Affiati OktaviarinaAffiliation unknown1
Asri MaharaniAffiliation unknown1
Mutia Eva MustafidahAffiliation unknown1
Asysta Amalia PasaribuBinus University1
Yunna Mentari IndahAffiliation unknown1
Lukmanul HakimAffiliation unknown1
Nurhidayah NurhidayahUniversitas Halu Oleo1
Logananta Puja KusumaAffiliation unknown1
Uswatun HasanahAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">TRANSFER FUNCTION AND ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING BI RATE IN INDONESIA</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Sadik, Kusman</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Indahwati, Indahwati</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Fluctuating gold prices can have an impact on various sectors of the economy. Some of the impacts of rising and falling gold prices are inflation, currency exchange rates, and the value of the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate). The data was taken from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency's official website (BPS) for the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) value. Therefore, research on the value of the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) is essential with the gold price as a control. The purpose of this study is to forecast the value of the Bank Indonesia reference interest rate (BI Rate) with a transfer function model where the input variable used is the price of gold and forecast the value of the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) with the ARIMA model. The analysis results show that the best model for forecasting the Bank Indonesia reference interest rate (BI Rate) is a transfer function model with a value of , , , and a noise series model &amp;nbsp;with the MAPE value is </dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2023-09-30</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/8045</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1359-1366</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications; 1359-1366</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3year2023</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/8045/6549</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2023 Khusnia Nurul Khikmah, Kusman Sadik, Indahwati Indahwati</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>