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PROJECTION OF THE INFLATION RATE IN PANGKALPINANG CITY USING THE AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE (ARMA)

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 17 No. 3 (2023) · pp. 1513–1520

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1513-1520
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2023-09-30
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

Inflation is one of the variables in the macro economy that can affect people's welfare and is defined as a complex phenomenon due to general and continuous price increases. This study aims to project the inflation rate in Pangkalpinang City, Bangka Belitung Islands Province in the period of October, November, and December of 2022. The historical inflation data used in this study is presented in a monthly period from January 2004 ends in October 2022 and January 2023 obtained from the publication of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province. The process projection is done using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model after passing the model fitting process first. The projection results obtained using historical inflation data show that the ARIMA model that is suitable for the projection process is the ARMA model (4,4) with the best RMSE value of 1.21 and MAE of 0.89. Through the results of this projection, it is also obtained that the percentage value of the inflation rate in Pangkalpinang City has decreased by 0.03% in the period of October 2022 and has increased in the period of November by 0.05%, then the inflation rate in Pangkalpinang City will again decline in the period of December 2022. by 0.3% and an increase of 0.33% in January 2023.

Collaboration network of the authors

17 authors · 49 co-authorship links · 1 across different organisations

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  • University of Bangka Belitung
  • Chiba University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Elyas KustiawanUniversity of Bangka Belitung4
Ilam MaryamAffiliation unknown2
Pitra WatiAffiliation unknown2
Ririn AmeliaAffiliation unknown2
Vebtasvili VebtasviliChiba University1
Haslen OktariantyAffiliation unknown1
Yabes Sentosa SilabanAffiliation unknown1
Fadillah LuthfiyahAffiliation unknown1
Dita RahmaniaAffiliation unknown1
KhadijahAffiliation unknown1
Niken HalimAffiliation unknown1
Helen SuhendraAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">PROJECTION OF THE INFLATION RATE IN PANGKALPINANG CITY USING THE AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE (ARMA)</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Sulistiana, Ineu</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Saputra, Darman</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Aldila, Herman</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Pririzki, Sisilia Jesika</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Inflation is one of the variables in the macro economy that can affect people's welfare and is defined as a complex phenomenon due to general and continuous price increases. This study aims to project the inflation rate in Pangkalpinang City, Bangka Belitung Islands Province in the period of October, November, and December of 2022. The historical inflation data used in this study is presented in a monthly period from January 2004 ends in October 2022 and January 2023 obtained from the publication of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province. The process projection is done using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model after passing the model fitting process first. The projection results obtained using historical inflation data show that the ARIMA model that is suitable for the projection process is the ARMA model (4,4) with the best RMSE value of 1.21 and MAE of 0.89. Through the results of this projection, it is also obtained that the percentage value of the inflation rate in Pangkalpinang City has decreased by 0.03% in the period of October 2022 and has increased in the period of November by 0.05%, then the inflation rate in Pangkalpinang City will again decline in the period of December 2022. by 0.3% and an increase of 0.33% in January 2023.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2023-09-30</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/8394</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1513-1520</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications; 1513-1520</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3year2023</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/8394/6565</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2023 Desy Yuliana Dalimunthe, Ineu Sulistiana, Darman Saputra, Herman Aldila, Sisilia Jesika Pririzki</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>