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COMPARISON OF FORECASTING RICE PRODUCTION IN MAGELANG CITY USING DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA)

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 17 No. 3 (2023) · hlm. 1533–1542

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1533-1542
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Terbit
2023-09-30
Penerbit
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstrak

Magelang City has experienced a significant decline in the rice production sector, triggering the need for forecasting research as the next crucial step. This research aims to forecast rice production in Magelang city. By applying Double Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA methods, the most suitable forecasting model is identified. Data on rice production was obtained from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of Magelang city. The results revealed that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model with MSE of 479,259 was the best choice. This model is expressed as. Using this model, rice production was forecast from July to December 2023, the forecasting results showed that rice paddy production is expected to fluctuate in the coming months. For July 2023, production is projected to be around 65,1762 units, followed by 51,4779 units in August, 58,2432 units in September, and so on.

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25 penulis · 76 tautan kepenulisan bersama · 11 lintas organisasi

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  • UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
  • Badan Pusat Statistik
  • Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency
  • Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Organisasi berbeda
  • Organisasi sama
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Garis lebih tebal = lebih banyak artikel bersama · lingkaran lebih besar = lebih banyak artikel
Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Dian Candra Rini NovitasariUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya4
Moh. HafiyusholehUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya3
Wika Dianita UtamiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya3
Yuniar FaridaUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Putroue Keumala IntanUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Abdulloh HamidUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Firman ArmunantoBadan Pusat Statistik2
Diah Devi PramestiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Fajar SetiawanMeteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency1
Fadjar SuhaeriBadan Pusat Statistik1
Achmad Teguh WibowoUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Mayandah FarmitaUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Shukor Sanim Mohd FauziUniversiti Teknologi MARA1
Maunah SetyawatiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Jeneiro MaulanaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Nurissaidah UlinnuhaUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Fery FirmansyahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Achmad Fachril Yusuf AbabilUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Yahya Vigo Tri SaputraUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Syamil Waris Dien MuhammadUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, pertama di-harvest 5 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">COMPARISON OF FORECASTING RICE PRODUCTION IN MAGELANG CITY USING DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA)</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Imron, M.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Khaulasari, Hani</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>SNM, Diva Ayu</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Inayah, Jauharotul</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>S, Eka Eliyana</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Magelang City has experienced a significant decline in the rice production sector, triggering the need for forecasting research as the next crucial step. This research aims to forecast rice production in Magelang city. By applying Double Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA methods, the most suitable forecasting model is identified. Data on rice production was obtained from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of Magelang city. The results revealed that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model with MSE of 479,259 was the best choice. This model is expressed as  . Using this model, rice&amp;nbsp; production was forecast from July to December 2023, the forecasting results showed that rice paddy production is expected to fluctuate in the coming months. For July 2023, production is projected to be around 65,1762 units, followed by 51,4779 units in August, 58,2432 units in September, and so on.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2023-09-30</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/8446</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1533-1542</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications; 1533-1542</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3year2023</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/8446/6567</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2023 M. Imron, Hani Khaulasari, Diva Ayu SNM, Jauharotul Inayah, Eka Eliyana S</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>