Open access Jurnal SINTA 3
COMPARISON OF SEASONAL TIME SERIES FORECASTING USING SARIMA AND HOLT WINTER’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (CASE STUDY: WEST SUMATRA EXPORT DATA)
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 17 No. 3 (2023) · pp. 1773–1784
- ISSN
- 2615-3017, 1978-7227
- Published
- 2023-09-30
- Publisher
- PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
- Language
- eng
Abstract
Export is the activity of selling goods or services from one country to another. This activity usually occurs in a specific region or country. Export data is a type of data that has a seasonal pattern. This study aims to compare SARIMA and Holt Winter’s methods in forecasting export data. In this study, the SARIMA model ((1,1,1) (0,1,1))12 and Holt Winter's simulation were obtained. The data used is the export data of West Sumatra from 2016 to 2022. The best model is the one with the smallest MAPE or MAD. The SARIMA model yielded a MAPE of 0,437% and MAD of 78,821. Meanwhile, the Holt Winter's method yielded a MAPE of 0,894% and MAD of 163,320 with α=0,2, β=0,5, γ=0,1. Therefore, the SARIMA outperformed the Holt Winter’s method due to its higher accuracy. It can be concluded that the SARIMA is suitable to use as the forecasting model in this case. In this study, forecast have been made for the next 24 periods, from January 2023 to December 2024.
Collaboration network of the authors
28 authors · 59 co-authorship links
Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.
- Universitas Halu Oleo
- University of Vaasa
- Affiliation unknown
- Different organisations
- Same organisation
- Affiliation unknown
- Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
| Co-author | Organisation | Joint articles |
|---|---|---|
| Afrimayani Afrimayani | Affiliation unknown | 3 |
| Fitri Rahmah Ul Hasanah | Affiliation unknown | 3 |
| Makmur Kambolong | Universitas Halu Oleo | 1 |
| Candra Puspita Ningtyas | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Yohanes Kristianto | University of Vaasa | 1 |
| Dwipajati Dwipajati | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Muhammad Ahsar Karim | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Yuni Yulida | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| La Ode Sabran | Universitas Halu Oleo | 1 |
| La Ode Nashar | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Ilham Dangu Rianjaya | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Rudiyanto Rudiyanto | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Dodi Devianto | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Ferra Yanuar | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Maiyastri Maiyastri | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Abdillah Khofial Luthfi | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Rachel Aura Azzahra | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Abd Kadir Jaelani | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Ilhamuddin Ilhamuddin | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Fathrul Arriah | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Shanti Riskiyani | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Arsyad Rahman | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Baharuddin Baharuddin | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Ira Taskirawati | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.