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FORECASTING THE VALUE OF INDONESIA'S OIL AND GAS IMPORTS USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 17 No. 4 (2023) · pp. 2047–2058

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp2047-2058
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2023-12-19
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

The value of Indonesia's oil and gas imports is a combination of the value of crude oil (petroleum), oil and natural gas products. Throughout 2021, the value of Indonesia's oil and gas imports reach US$ 25.53 billion or the equivalent of 382.95 trillion rupiah (estimated at US$ 1 = Rp. 15,000.00). The high demand for petroleum in Indonesia is due to the fact that petroleum is the main source of energy for daily life needs, especially for industrial, transportation and household needs. The requirment for oil imports is expected to increase along with the growth in Indonesia's population. Therefore, a step is needed to prevent an increase in the value of oil and gas imports in the coming period. One method of analysis that can be used is forecasting using the time series method with the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The SARIMA model is a time series method with data that has a seasonal pattern and the forecasting results will get a pattern similar to the previous data. The data used is data on the monthly value of oil and gas imports from January 2005 to December 2022 with totaling 216 data. This research aims to find the best model and predict the value of Indonesia's oil and gas imports in the next 12 periods with data test in 4 periods (Januari to April 2023). The best model for the results of this research is (2, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)43 with a MAPE value of 13.90%. Based on the accuracy of the MAPE value, this percentage has good quality forecasting results.

Collaboration network of the authors

10 authors · 15 co-authorship links · 1 across different organisations

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  • Bandung Islamic University
  • IPB University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Bagus SartonoIPB University1
Khairil Anwar NotodiputroBandung Islamic University1
Indahwati IndahwatiAffiliation unknown1
Rifa KamiliaAffiliation unknown1
Faroh LadayyaAffiliation unknown1
Dania SiregarAffiliation unknown1
Aulia BaihaqiAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">FORECASTING THE VALUE OF INDONESIA'S OIL AND GAS IMPORTS USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Santi, Vera Maya</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Wahyu, Rahadian</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Hadi, Ibnu</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The value of Indonesia's oil and gas imports is a combination of the value of crude oil (petroleum), oil and natural gas products. Throughout 2021, the value of Indonesia's oil and gas imports reach US$ 25.53 billion or the equivalent of 382.95 trillion rupiah (estimated at US$ 1 = Rp. 15,000.00). The high demand for petroleum in Indonesia is due to the fact that petroleum is the main source of energy for daily life needs, especially for industrial, transportation and household needs. The requirment for oil imports is expected to increase along with the growth in Indonesia's population. Therefore, a step is needed to prevent an increase in the value of oil and gas imports in the coming period. One method of analysis that can be used is forecasting using the time series method with the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The SARIMA model is a time series method with data that has a seasonal pattern and the forecasting results will get a pattern similar to the previous data. The data used is data on the monthly value of oil and gas imports from January 2005 to December 2022 with totaling 216 data. This research aims to find the best model and predict the value of Indonesia's oil and gas imports in the next 12 periods with data test in 4 periods (Januari to April 2023). The best model for the results of this research is (2, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)43 with a MAPE value of 13.90%. Based on the accuracy of the MAPE value, this percentage has good quality forecasting results.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2023-12-19</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/9395</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp2047-2058</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 17 No 4 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications; 2047-2058</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol17iss4year2023</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/9395/7191</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2023 Vera Maya Santi, Rahadian Wahyu2, Ibnu Hadi</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>