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MODELING THE MANY EARTHQUAKES IN SUMATRA USING POISSON HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS AND EXPECTATION MAXIMIZATION ALGORITHM

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 18 No. 1 (2024) · pp. 0163–0170

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol18iss1pp0163-10135
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2024-03-01
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

Sumatra Island is one of the islands that are prone to earthquakes because Sumatra Island is located at the confluence of three plates, namely the large Indo-Australian plate, the Eurasian plate and the Philippine plate. In general, the number of earthquake events follows the Poisson distribution, but there are cases where there is overdispersion in the Poisson distribution. The Poisson Hidden Markov Models (PHMMs) method is used to overcome overdispersion, then applying the Expectation-Maximization Algorithm (EM algorithm) to each model to obtain the estimated parameters. From the models obtained, the best model will be selected based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value. The data used is secondary data on earthquake events on the island of Sumatra from January 2000 to December 2022 with a depth of ≤ 70 Km and a magnitude of ≥ 4.4 Mw. From the research, the model with m = 3 is the best estimation model with an AIC value of 1503,286. From the best model, estimates are obtained for Poisson Hidden Markov Models with an average occurrence of earthquakes of 5.7633 ≈ 6 events within one month.

Collaboration network of the authors

9 authors · 14 co-authorship links

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  • Hasanuddin University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Nur AfandiHasanuddin University2
Sigit NugrohoAffiliation unknown1
Muhammad Arib AlwansyahAffiliation unknown1
Siska YosmarAffiliation unknown1
Rina WidyasariAffiliation unknown1
Muhammad Chairul ImamAffiliation unknown1
Rina Filia SariAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">MODELING THE MANY EARTHQUAKES IN SUMATRA USING POISSON HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS AND EXPECTATION MAXIMIZATION ALGORITHM</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Alwansyah, Muhammad Arib</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Rachmawati, Ramya</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Sumatra Island is one of the islands that are prone to earthquakes because Sumatra Island is located at the confluence of three plates, namely the large Indo-Australian plate, the Eurasian plate and the Philippine plate. In general, the number of earthquake events follows the Poisson distribution, but there are cases where there is overdispersion in the Poisson distribution. The Poisson Hidden Markov Models (PHMMs) method is used to overcome overdispersion, then applying the Expectation-Maximization Algorithm (EM algorithm) to each model to obtain the estimated parameters. From the models obtained, the best model will be selected based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value. The data used is secondary data on earthquake events on the island of Sumatra from January 2000 to December 2022 with a depth of ≤ 70 Km and a magnitude of ≥ 4.4 Mw. From the research, the model with m = 3 is the best estimation model with an AIC value of 1503,286. From the best model, estimates are obtained for Poisson Hidden Markov Models with an average occurrence of earthquakes of 5.7633 ≈ 6 events within one month.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-03-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10135</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol18iss1pp0163-10135</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 18 No 1 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application; 0163-0170</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol18iss1year2024</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10135/7551</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2024 Muhammad Arib Alwansyah, Ramya Rachmawati</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>