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Open access Jurnal SINTA 3

POVERTY MACRO SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING BASED ON SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS MODELS

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 18 No. 1 (2024) · pp. 0255–0268

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol18iss1pp0255-0268
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2024-03-01
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

Poverty factors are multidimensional and complex. Currently, to predict the number of people living below the poverty line using the concept of linear thinking. It is necessary to study the causal relationships among poverty factors in form of a system dynamics model. This study aims to predict the poverty rate people in “The Golden Indonesia” 2030 using poverty macro models. The data used are time series data from 2009 to 2018 at the national level (Indonesia), and data sources from the BPS Statistics-Indonesia, and the Ministry of Environment and Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia. The research method uses a system dynamics model, where the system of thinking is created based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) simultaneous equation model. The 2SLS simultaneous equation model testing results show that there are three significant simultaneous equations, including poverty, economic growth, and human development index. Furthermore, the three simultaneous equations show a causal loop diagram (CLD) in a system dynamics model. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 2.34%, meaning that the macro poverty model is valid. The scenario formats for prediction include “optimistic” for economic growth and the “moderate” for human development index (HDI), total population, unemployment, and environmental quality index variables. The predicted percentage number of poor people in 2030 is 4.12%, a positive deviation of 0.12% from the government’s target of 4%. All parties need to work hard and together for the “optimistic” scenario to be implemented, which is to raise Indonesia’s economic growth to 7.4%. This study assumes that there is no Covid-19 problem and only predicts 10 years due to limited data used in 2010-2018. The novelty of this study is the alignment of the prediction results between the system dynamics and the simultaneous equation models. In general, the system dynamics model is valid and could answer the complexity of a phenomenon to predict poverty.

Collaboration network of the authors

32 authors · 109 co-authorship links

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  • Jenderal Soedirman University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Nilam Novita SariAffiliation unknown5
Kadir KadirAffiliation unknown3
Dena SafarizaAffiliation unknown3
Munawar AsikinAffiliation unknown3
Danu UmbaraAffiliation unknown3
Rizky HilmiantoAffiliation unknown3
Robert KurniawanAffiliation unknown3
Endang YulianiAffiliation unknown2
Citra Komang SariAffiliation unknown2
Baihaqy MahardikaAffiliation unknown2
Khansa Salsabil FadyaAffiliation unknown2
Wiwiek Rabiatul AdawiyahJenderal Soedirman University1
Christina Tri SetyoriniJenderal Soedirman University1
Vera Maya SantiAffiliation unknown1
Aulia BaihaqiAffiliation unknown1
Hamidah NasutionAffiliation unknown1
Maria Cyntia S.Affiliation unknown1
Faiz AhyaningsihAffiliation unknown1
Fidelis Nofertinus ZaiAffiliation unknown1
Arnita ArnitaAffiliation unknown1
Faridawaty MarpaungAffiliation unknown1
K M A FauziAffiliation unknown1
Eni YuniastutiAffiliation unknown1
Suvriadi PanggabeanAffiliation unknown1
Dedi KusmayadiAffiliation unknown1
Wildan Dwi DermawanAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">POVERTY MACRO SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING BASED ON SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS MODELS</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Sumargo, Bagus</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Firmansyah, Irman</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nugraha, Asep Anwar</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Mulyono, Mulyono</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Siregar, Dania</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nuriza, Felia Aidah</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Poverty factors are multidimensional and complex. Currently, to predict the number of people living below the poverty line using the concept of linear thinking. It is necessary to study the causal relationships among poverty factors in form of a system dynamics model. This study aims to predict the poverty rate people in “The Golden Indonesia” 2030 using poverty macro models. The data used are time series data from 2009 to 2018 at the national level (Indonesia), and data sources from the BPS Statistics-Indonesia, and the Ministry of Environment and Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia. The research method uses a system dynamics model, where the system of thinking is created based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) simultaneous equation model. The 2SLS simultaneous equation model testing results show that there are three significant simultaneous equations, including poverty, economic growth, and human development index. Furthermore, the three simultaneous equations show a causal loop diagram (CLD) in a system dynamics model. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 2.34%, meaning that the macro poverty model is valid. The scenario formats for prediction include “optimistic” for economic growth and the “moderate” for human development index (HDI), total population, unemployment, and environmental quality index variables. The predicted percentage number of poor people in 2030 is 4.12%, a positive deviation of 0.12% from the government’s target of 4%. All parties need to work hard and together for the “optimistic” scenario to be implemented, which is to raise Indonesia’s economic growth to 7.4%. This study assumes that there is no Covid-19 problem and only predicts 10 years due to limited data used in 2010-2018. The novelty of this study is the alignment of the prediction results between the system dynamics and the simultaneous equation models. In general, the system dynamics model is valid and could answer the complexity of a phenomenon to predict poverty.
&amp;nbsp;</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-03-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10254</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol18iss1pp0255-0268</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 18 No 1 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application; 0255-0268</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol18iss1year2024</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10254/7590</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2024 Bagus Sumargo, Irman Firmansyah, Asep Anwar Nugraha, Mulyono Mulyono, Dania Siregar, Felia Aidah Nuriza</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>