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SPREADING PATTERN OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES: SUSCEPTIBLE INFECTED RECOVERED MODEL WITH VACCINATION AND DRUG-RESISTANT CASES (APPLICATION ON TB DATA IN INDONESIA)

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 18 No. 1 (2024) · pp. 0467–0474

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol18iss1pp0467-0474
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2024-03-01
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the causative agent of the infectious illness tuberculosis (TB). Indonesia is the world's third-highest TB burden country. TB transmission is prevented by the BCG vaccination. A directly observed treatment, short-course (DOTS) treatment approach can cure TB illness. Recurrent TB may occur due to either relapse or reinfection with drug-resistant bacteria. The goals of this article are formulating the SVITR model with relapse and drug-resistant cases, applying the model to the TB data in Indonesia, determining the model accuracy, determining the spreading pattern and interpreting the result, and simulating the parameters. Literature study and application methods are used in this research. The SVITR model with relapse and drug-resistant cases is a first-order nonlinear differential equation system. The model is applied to TB in Indonesia based on annual data from Indonesian Health Profile, World Bank, and WHO. The model is solved by the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The model is accurate enough to explain the spread of TB in Indonesia with a MAPE value of 15,5%. The spreading pattern of tuberculosis infection is upward from 2010 to 2050. In 2050, there are still 8.115.976 TB cases in Indonesia. Hence in 2050, Indonesia's free of TB target has yet to be achieved. Simulation is conducted by increasing BCG vaccination to 95%, reducing contact with TB patients to 5%, increasing treatment to 95%, and lowering relapses and drug-resistant cases to 0.00005%, so the Indonesia free of TB target in 2050 can be achieved from 2042.

Collaboration network of the authors

26 authors · 58 co-authorship links

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  • Binus University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Sutanto SutantoAffiliation unknown6
Krisna SidiqAffiliation unknown3
Antoni WibowoBinus University2
Nughthoh Arfawi KurdhiAffiliation unknown2
Sela Putri IndriatiAffiliation unknown2
Ghufron Musta'inAffiliation unknown2
Fahri Aimar KusumoAffiliation unknown2
Nicolas Ray Amarco TambunanAffiliation unknown2
Husnun Nur Ghiffari Putri RiyansyahAffiliation unknown1
Bowo WinarnoAffiliation unknown1
Arifah Mufidah LestariAffiliation unknown1
Ria Puan AdhitamaAffiliation unknown1
Heri PrasetyoAffiliation unknown1
Fadiah KhairinaAffiliation unknown1
Gusti Ngurah Adhi WibowoAffiliation unknown1
Andjani Ayu Cahaya TanjungAffiliation unknown1
Muhammad Nazhif Abda Putera KhanoAffiliation unknown1
Alexander Yonathan ChristyAffiliation unknown1
Aslina BaharumAffiliation unknown1
Anas IvanniAffiliation unknown1
Harun Al RasyidAffiliation unknown1
Andre Fajry Al BarraAffiliation unknown1
Ghaitsa Shafa Cinta KanantaAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">SPREADING PATTERN OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES: SUSCEPTIBLE INFECTED RECOVERED MODEL WITH VACCINATION AND DRUG-RESISTANT CASES (APPLICATION ON TB DATA IN INDONESIA)</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Widyaningsih, Purnami</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Yumaroh, Siti Roqhilu</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the causative agent of the infectious illness tuberculosis (TB). Indonesia is the world's third-highest TB burden country. TB transmission is prevented by the BCG vaccination. A directly observed treatment, short-course (DOTS) treatment approach can cure TB illness. Recurrent TB may occur due to either relapse or reinfection with drug-resistant bacteria. The goals of this article are formulating the SVITR model with relapse and drug-resistant cases, applying the model to the TB data in Indonesia, determining the model accuracy, determining the spreading pattern and interpreting the result, and simulating the parameters. Literature study and application methods are used in this research. The SVITR model with relapse and drug-resistant cases is a first-order nonlinear differential equation system. The model is applied to TB in Indonesia based on annual data from Indonesian Health Profile, World Bank, and WHO. The model is solved by the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The model is accurate enough to explain the spread of TB in Indonesia with a MAPE value of 15,5%. The spreading pattern of tuberculosis infection is upward from 2010 to 2050. In 2050, there are still 8.115.976 TB cases in Indonesia. Hence in 2050, Indonesia's free of TB target has yet to be achieved. Simulation is conducted by increasing BCG vaccination to 95%, reducing contact with TB patients to 5%, increasing treatment to 95%, and lowering relapses and drug-resistant cases to 0.00005%, so the Indonesia free of TB target in 2050 can be achieved from 2042.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-03-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10725</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol18iss1pp0467-0474</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 18 No 1 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application; 0467-0474</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol18iss1year2024</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10725/7581</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2024 Purnami Widyaningsih, Siti Roqhilu Yumaroh, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>