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IMPLEMENTATION OF VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM) METHOD IN PNEUMONIA PATIENTS WITH WEATHER ELEMENTS IN PANGKALPINANG CITY

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 18 No. 3 (2024) · pp. 1447–1458

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1447-1458
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2024-07-31
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

The news about Covid-19 is no longer as scary as in previous years. As COVID-19 cases decrease, health protocols are becoming more relaxed, making it easier for the virus to spread. Besides COVID-19, ARI is one of Indonesia's leading causes of death for children under five. Around 20-40% of hospital admissions are children due to ARI, with around 1.6 million deaths due to pneumonia alone in children under five per year. Currently, ARI dominates the diseases most suffered by the people of Bangka Belitung. Based on this, using the VAR and VECM method to analyze pneumonia sufferers in toddlers regarding weather elements in the Pangkalpinang City. The VAR model has a simpler structure with a minimal number of variables where all the variables are endogenous, with the independent variable being the lag. Meanwhile, VECM can be used to model cointegrated and non-stationary time series data. The data used in this research is the number of monthly cases of toddlers suffering from pneumonia and data on climate conditions, namely rainfall, air temperature, air humidity and duration of sunlight during 2019-2021 in Pangkalpinang City. The results of the Granger Causality test show that the pneumonia variables regarding rainfall, temperature, duration of sunlight and humidity only have a one-way causality pattern. The VAR estimation results show that weather elements (rainfall, temperature and duration of sunlight) do not significantly affect pneumonia in the short term. Meanwhile, the VECM estimation results show that in the long-term pattern, humidity variables affect pneumonia. For this reason, it is recommended that the relevant agencies carry out outreach to the public, especially to pneumonia sufferers, to avoid damp weather. Because the lower the humidity value, the greater the potential for pneumonia in Pangkalpinang City, Bangka Belitung Islands Province.

Collaboration network of the authors

6 authors · 9 co-authorship links

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  • University of Bangka Belitung
  • Affiliation unknown
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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Elyas KustiawanUniversity of Bangka Belitung1
Desy Yuliana DalimuntheAffiliation unknown1
Ineu SulistianaAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">IMPLEMENTATION OF VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM) METHOD IN PNEUMONIA PATIENTS WITH WEATHER ELEMENTS IN PANGKALPINANG CITY</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Amelia, Ririn</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Wahyuni, Dhiti</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Julianti, Erna</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The news about Covid-19 is no longer as scary as in previous years. As COVID-19 cases decrease, health protocols are becoming more relaxed, making it easier for the virus to spread. Besides COVID-19, ARI is one of Indonesia's leading causes of death for children under five. Around 20-40% of hospital admissions are children due to ARI, with around 1.6 million deaths due to pneumonia alone in children under five per year. Currently, ARI dominates the diseases most suffered by the people of Bangka Belitung. Based on this, using the VAR and VECM method to analyze pneumonia sufferers in toddlers regarding weather elements in the Pangkalpinang City. The VAR model has a simpler structure with a minimal number of variables where all the variables are endogenous, with the independent variable being the lag. Meanwhile, VECM can be used to model cointegrated and non-stationary time series data. The data used in this research is the number of monthly cases of toddlers suffering from pneumonia and data on climate conditions, namely rainfall, air temperature, air humidity and duration of sunlight during 2019-2021 in Pangkalpinang City. The results of the Granger Causality test show that the pneumonia variables regarding rainfall, temperature, duration of sunlight and humidity only have a one-way causality pattern. The VAR estimation results show that weather elements (rainfall, temperature and duration of sunlight) do not significantly affect pneumonia in the short term. Meanwhile, the VECM estimation results show that in the long-term pattern, humidity variables affect pneumonia. For this reason, it is recommended that the relevant agencies carry out outreach to the public, especially to pneumonia sufferers, to avoid damp weather. Because the lower the humidity value, the greater the potential for pneumonia in Pangkalpinang City, Bangka Belitung Islands Province.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-07-31</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10990</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1447-1458</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application; 1447-1458</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol18iss3year2024</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10990/8579</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2024 Ririn Amelia, Dhiti Wahyuni, Erna Julianti</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>