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FORECASTING NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS USING MULTI INPUT INTERVENTION ARIMA MODEL

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 18 No. 3 (2024) · hlm. 1539–1548

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1539-1548
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Terbit
2024-07-31
Penerbit
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Bahasa
eng
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstrak

In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic caused a very significant impact resulting in the drastic decline in the number of international tourist visits. As the Covid-19 pandemic ends, the government reopen international flight to Indonesia in early 2022 to remark the revival of the tourism industry. To determine how big the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the recovery process on international tourist visits through Soekarno-Hatta, Ngurah-Rai, and Kualanamu airports in the coming period, forecasting is needed. The forecasting method utilized in this study is multi-input intervention analysis. The first input is caused by the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic, while the second input is due to the international flight reopening. The type of intervention variable chosen is a step function because both inputs give permanent effect to the international tourist arrivals. The data used in this study are monthly international tourist arrivals based on the entrances to Soekarno-Hatta, Ngurah-Rai, and Kualanamu International Airports from January 2008 to September 2023, taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics website. Based on the results, it was found that the number of international tourist arrivals entering Soekarno-Hatta airport can be modelled using SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,0)12 with (b=2, s=1, r=0) and (b=2, s=[3], r=0) for first and second input of intervention variable, respectively. Furthermore, the number of international tourist visits through Ngurah-Rai airport was more appropriate to be modelled using SARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with intervention inputs (b=1, s=[2], r=0) and (b=4, s=0, r=1). In Kualanamu airport, the first intervention order is equal to that in Ngurah-Rai airport, with (b=3, s=[3], r=0) for second intervention input and SARIMA (0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 for pre-intervention data. The forecast results show that the number of international tourist arrivals entering Soekarno-Hatta, Ngurah-Rai, and Kualanamu international airports are already recovered to pre-pandemic conditions at a quick pace

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  • Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
  • Universitas Pattimura
  • Organisasi berbeda
  • Organisasi sama
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
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Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Muhammad AhsanInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember3
Eirene Christina SellyraInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Kevin Agung Fernanda RifkiInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Muhammad Yahya MatdoanUniversitas Pattimura1
Rahida Rihhadatul AisyInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Aulia Afifatur RohmahInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Anis Alif NurhayatiInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Agnes Nathania PramestyInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Aura Lovi ArdanikaInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Fauziyah Nurul IsnainiInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, pertama di-harvest 5 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">FORECASTING NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS USING MULTI INPUT INTERVENTION ARIMA MODEL</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Khusna, Hidayatul</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Mashuri, Muhammad</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Ahsan, Muhammad</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Wibawati, Wibawati</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Aksioma, Diaz Fitra</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Suhermi, Novri</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic caused a very significant impact resulting in the drastic decline in the number of international tourist visits. As the Covid-19 pandemic ends, the government reopen international flight to Indonesia in early 2022 to remark the revival of the tourism industry. To determine how big the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the recovery process on international tourist visits through Soekarno-Hatta, Ngurah-Rai, and Kualanamu airports in the coming period, forecasting is needed. The forecasting method utilized in this study is multi-input intervention analysis. The first input is caused by the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic, while the second input is due to the international flight reopening. The type of intervention variable chosen is a step function because both inputs give permanent effect to the international tourist arrivals. The data used in this study are monthly international tourist arrivals based on the entrances to Soekarno-Hatta, Ngurah-Rai, and Kualanamu International Airports from January 2008 to September 2023, taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics website. Based on the results, it was found that the number of international tourist arrivals entering Soekarno-Hatta airport can be modelled using SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,0)12 with (b=2, s=1, r=0) and (b=2, s=[3], r=0) for first and second input of intervention variable, respectively. Furthermore, the number of international tourist visits through Ngurah-Rai airport was more appropriate to be modelled using SARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with intervention inputs (b=1, s=[2], r=0) and (b=4, s=0, r=1). In Kualanamu airport, the first intervention order is equal to that in Ngurah-Rai airport, with (b=3, s=[3], r=0) for second intervention input and SARIMA (0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 for pre-intervention data. The forecast results show that the number of international tourist arrivals entering Soekarno-Hatta, Ngurah-Rai, and Kualanamu international airports are already recovered to pre-pandemic conditions at a quick pace</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-07-31</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
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	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/11513</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1539-1548</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application; 1539-1548</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol18iss3year2024</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/11513/8586</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2024 Hidayatul Khusna, Muhammad Mashuri, Muhammad Ahsan, Wibawati Wibawati, Diaz Fitra Aksioma, Novri Suhermi</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
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