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EID AL-FITR INFLUENCES THE NUMBER OF TRAIN PASSENGERS ON THE SUMATRA ISLAND (CALENDAR VARIATIONS TIME SERIES MODEL)

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 18 No. 4 (2024) · pp. 2191–2202

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2191-2202
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2024-10-11
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

The Train is one of the transportation options for land travel on the island of Sumatra because of its affordable cost, comfort, and fast mobility. The majority of the population of Sumatra Island who are Muslims influenced the sharp increase in the number of train passengers during Eid Al-Fitr due to the large number of residents who returned to their hometowns (Sumatra Island). The time of Eid Al-Fitr will change every year on the Gregorian calendar, but it is always the same if using the Hijri calendar. This study aims to predict the number of train passengers on the island of Sumatra based on calendar variations (Eid Al-Fitr). To overcome this calendar variation, time series modeling will be used with the addition of exogenous variables (ARIMAX). This model consists of a time series regression equation added with a time series model of the residual regression equation of an exogenous variable. The resulting model can forecast the number of train passengers in the next few months and find that Eid Al-Fitr affects the data. Every Eid Al-Fitr, there is an increase in the number of train passengers by 49 passengers. The model obtained is in the good category with MAPE in-sample of 18.12% and out-sample of 9.93%.

Collaboration network of the authors

12 authors · 28 co-authorship links

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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Shelma M PeluAffiliation unknown1
Gilbert Alvaro SouisaAffiliation unknown1
Reyner M. LeiwakabessyAffiliation unknown1
Mohammad Zanuar F TerimAffiliation unknown1
Turfah LatifahAffiliation unknown1
Dedy Dwi PrastyoAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">EID AL-FITR INFLUENCES THE NUMBER OF TRAIN PASSENGERS ON THE SUMATRA ISLAND (CALENDAR VARIATIONS TIME SERIES MODEL)</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Akbar, Muhammad Sjahid</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Safira, Dinda Ayu</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Fadhilah, Rahmi</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Damayanti, Salma</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Riskianto, Riskianto</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Puthy, Khem</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The Train is one of the transportation options for land travel on the island of Sumatra because of its affordable cost, comfort, and fast mobility. The majority of the population of Sumatra Island who are Muslims influenced the sharp increase in the number of train passengers during Eid Al-Fitr due to the large number of residents who returned to their hometowns (Sumatra Island). The time of Eid Al-Fitr will change every year on the Gregorian calendar, but it is always the same if using the Hijri calendar. This study aims to predict the number of train passengers on the island of Sumatra based on calendar variations (Eid Al-Fitr). To overcome this calendar variation, time series modeling will be used with the addition of exogenous variables (ARIMAX). This model consists of a time series regression equation added with a time series model of the residual regression equation of an exogenous variable. The resulting model can forecast the number of train passengers in the next few months and find that Eid Al-Fitr affects the data. Every Eid Al-Fitr, there is an increase in the number of train passengers by 49 passengers. The model obtained is in the good category with MAPE in-sample of 18.12% and out-sample of 9.93%.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-10-11</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12214</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2191-2202</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 18 No 4 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application; 2191-2202</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol18iss4year2024</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12214/8896</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2024 Muhammad Sjahid Akbar, Dinda Ayu Safira, Rahmi Fadhilah, Salma Damayanti, Riskianto Riskianto, Khem Puthy</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>