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POSITIVE CONFIRMED PREDICTION OF COVID-19 IN EAST JAVA USING COUNT TIME SERIES BASED DOUBLE POISSON INAR(p) PROCESS

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 19 No. 2 (2025) · pp. 879–888

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp879-888
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2025-04-01
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

In December 2019, there was a virus outbreak caused by a virus disease with a relatively high spread in Indonesia, one of which was in East Java Province. It is proven by the number of new cases on January 15, 2021, in East Java, reaching 12818 cases. This is why researchers predict the number of positive cases of COVID-19 in East Java so that the Government can anticipate an increase in the number of COVID-19 patients. This study uses data on the addition of positive COVID-19 cases in East Java from May 16, 2020, to January 24, 2021. Because the count time series data shows overdispersion, predictions are made by modeling the COVID-19 data using the INAR( ). development model, namely Double Poisson INAR( ). Several tests were carried out with data from the Double Poisson distribution, and then the ACF and PACF plots were analyzed to find the order of INARDP. After obtaining the order, the model can be constructed and estimated using MLE. Then, the prediction of adding COVID-19 cases in East Java on January 25, 2021, obtained 949 cases with an estimated error of 13.73 percent. So, the model show that the accuracy of the forecasted value with actual value is 86.17 percent.

Collaboration network of the authors

18 authors · 54 co-authorship links

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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Danang AriyantoAffiliation unknown7
Riska Wahyu RomadhoniaAffiliation unknown5
Affiati OktaviarinaAffiliation unknown3
Dimas Avian MaulanaAffiliation unknown2
Rosalina Agista RianiAffiliation unknown2
Asri MaharaniAffiliation unknown2
Mutia Eva MustafidahAffiliation unknown2
Kusman SadikAffiliation unknown1
Indahwati IndahwatiAffiliation unknown1
A’idah Nur HanifahAffiliation unknown1
Junaidi Budi PrihantoAffiliation unknown1
Mohammad Dian PurnamaAffiliation unknown1
Riskyana Dewi I PuspitasariAffiliation unknown1
Hernando OmbaoAffiliation unknown1
A'yunin Sofro SofroAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">POSITIVE CONFIRMED PREDICTION OF COVID-19 IN EAST JAVA USING COUNT TIME SERIES BASED DOUBLE POISSON INAR(p) PROCESS</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Sofro, A'yunin</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Subiantoro, Framitha Septian</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">In December 2019, there was a virus outbreak caused by a virus disease with a relatively high spread in Indonesia, one of which was in East Java Province. It is proven by the number of new cases on January 15, 2021, in East Java, reaching 12818 cases. This is why researchers predict the number of positive cases of COVID-19 in East Java so that the Government can anticipate an increase in the number of COVID-19 patients. This study uses data on the addition of positive COVID-19 cases in East Java from May 16, 2020, to January 24, 2021. Because the count time series data shows overdispersion, predictions are made by modeling the COVID-19 data using the INAR( ). development model, namely Double Poisson INAR( ). Several tests were carried out with data from the Double Poisson distribution, and then the ACF and PACF plots were analyzed to find the order of INARDP. After obtaining the order, the model can be constructed and estimated using MLE. Then, the prediction of adding COVID-19 cases in East Java on January 25, 2021, obtained 949 cases with an estimated error of 13.73 percent. So, the model show that the accuracy of the forecasted value with actual value is 86.17 percent.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-04-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/14769</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp879-888</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 19 No 2 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application; 879-888</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol19iss2year2025</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/14769/9907</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2025 A'yunin Sofro, Framitha Septian Subiantoro, Khusnia Nurul Khikmah</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>