THE DESIGN OF STANDARD GRAPH FOR TODDLER GROWTH USES NONPARAMETRIC PENALIZED SPLINE REGRESSION

Abstract

One way to carry out early detection of toddler growth is through the Healthy Way Card (KMS). The KMS used in Indonesia does not describe the growth behavior of toddlers. The KMS used is the standard from the World Health Organization (WHO). Apart from that, the growth chart for toddlers at each age will show different patterns. This pattern does not form a linear graph or a particular pattern. Therefore, the Nonparametric Regression method was used using a penalized spline estimator which produces a local Indonesian standard KMS which is used to assess the growth of toddlers. Designing KMS with a confidence interval approach to nonparametric regression values using a penalized spline estimator. Data was obtained from the results of the recapitulation of Posyandu in Bojonegoro from January to December 2023, totaling 120 data. The variables used in this research are the toddler's weight (y) as the response variable and the toddler's age (x) as the predictor variable. In nonparametric regression modeling using a penalized spline estimator with several combinations of numbers and knot point locations. Selection of optimal knot points using minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Based on the results of the analysis, it shows that there are different times of weight change for male toddlers and female toddlers in Bojonegoro. The weight of male toddlers in Bojonegoro has 3 patterns of change, namely the weight of male toddlers increases drastically until the age of 16 months, then increases slowly until the age of 55 months. Then the weight of male toddlers will increase again drastically after the age of 55 months. Meanwhile, the weight of female toddlers in Bojonegoro has three patterns of change, namely the weight of female toddlers increases drastically until the age of 5 months, then increases slowly until the age of 15 months, and again increases drastically after the age of 15 months. This can be caused by physical differences in babies based on gender. To create a standard chart for toddlers' weight growth based on age, it was analyzed by calculating the percentile values consisting of P3, P15, P50, P85, and P97 for each toddler age category.