AN EXAMINATION OF THE GREEN STOCK PORTFOLIO IN CONNECTION WITH THE 2024 INDONESIAN REPUBLIC PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION

Abstract

The presidential election of the Republic of Indonesia occurs on a frequency of once every five years. The present work investigated the impact of the 2024 Presidential Election on the performance of the optimal stock portfolio constructed by K-Means Clustering during the first phase of stock selection. Subsequently, the portfolio will be evaluated using two distinct approaches, namely Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolio (MVEP). Both techniques were employed to construct several portfolios throughout three time periods: before the Presidential Election (13 August 2023 to 13 February 2024) and after the Presidential Election (15 February to 15 April 2024 and 20 April 2024 to 20 May 2024). This was done by implementing a mechanism to manage the allocation of shares in order to optimize the portfolio. The analyzed data is historical data on daily green stock closing prices indexed on the SRI-KEHATI index. A portfolio was constructed and subsequently evaluated for its performance using the Sharpe Index. The findings of this study suggest that the upcoming 2024 general election for the presidency of the Republic of Indonesia had a favorable impact on the Indonesian capital market, particularly for stocks that are indexed by SRI-KEHATI. This criterion was proposed based on the observation that the average Sharpe ratio index for Period II and Period III exceeds the average Sharpe ratio index for Period I (prior to the election day). The most optimal portfolio examined in this study was the MVEP portfolio, mostly composed of assets in the primary consumer products industry, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.53586. Furthermore, the performance of portfolios in period III (after the election result release) was far superior to that of other portfolios examined in previous periods.