FORECASTING STATIONARY CLIMATE DATA USING AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS AND HIGH-ORDER FUZZY

Abstrak

Forecasting is essential for improving aviation safety, with air humidity being a critical factor influenced by air temperature. This study analyzes daily humidity data from I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport, one of Indonesia’s busiest air stations, using two time series modeling approaches: Autoregressive (AR) and high-order fuzzy modeling. The objective is to evaluate and compare their forecasting accuracy. Historical daily data from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia were used to build the forecasting models. The optimal linear AR model served as the foundation for constructing the AR high-order fuzzy model, which incorporates linguistic rules to capture nonlinear patterns. Both models were implemented and evaluated using the Mean Squared Error (MSE) metric. Results show that the AR(2) model outperforms the AR high-order fuzzy model, achieving a lower MSE of 13.23. This suggests that the AR(2) model provides more accurate humidity forecasts over the observed period. These findings offer practical insights for policymakers and decision-makers in forecasting daily humidity levels and supporting aviation operations. While the study confirms the effectiveness of traditional AR modeling, it also highlights limitations of the fuzzy approach, particularly its sensitivity to parameter tuning and data sparsity. The integration of high-order fuzzy modeling represents a novel contribution to this domain, though further refinement is needed to enhance its forecasting performance.