MODELLING THE NUMBER OF CRIMES IN EAST JAVA USING A TRUNCATED SPLINE SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION APPROACH

Abstrak

High crime rates can lead to unrest and financial losses for the community. East Java is one of the provinces with high crime rates, with a total of 21,046 reported crimes in 2023. This study aims to identify the factors that influence crime rates in East Java and evaluate the goodness of the model through truncated spline semiparametric regression. Truncated spline semiparametric regression is a combination of parametric and nonparametric methods that can adjust changes in data patterns through the presence of knot points. The data used in this study were sourced from the Central Statistics Agency, including variables such as the number of people living in poverty, average years of schooling, gross regional domestic product, population, Gini ratio, per capita expenditure, and open unemployment rate. The results of the analysis indicate that the predictor variables have a significant influence on the number of crimes simultaneously. Partially, the variables that influence the number of crimes in East Java Province are average years of schooling, population, Gini ratio, per capita expenditure, and open unemployment rate. The best regression model is obtained using the combination knot point (4,2,4,3) with a minimum GCV value of 49636.60. The coefficient of determination obtained is 93.60%, indicating that the predictor variables can explain 93.60% of the variation in the crime rate, while the remaining 6.40% is attributed to variables outside the scope of the study.