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Perbandingan Metode Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) Menggunakan Metode Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smothing dan Box Jenkins

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi · Vol. 16 No. 2 (2019) · pp. 162–173

DOI
10.20956/jmsk.v16i2.7795
ISSN
2614-8811, 1858-1382
Published
2019-12-19
Publisher
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Language
en

Abstract

One of Indonesia's significant results is oil palm. The reality of this plantation is not only owned by the government (BUMN) but also the private sector. Every period, the company does forecasting in terms of production, especially for the next period. Among them is to set production targets, company operations, and financial planning. Based on this, a study was conducted with the aim to predict the amount of palm kernel oil (PKO) production at PT. Mitra Mendawai Sejati for the next six (6) months. The method used is Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing and Box Jenkins. While the data used is historical data from the amount of palm kernel oil production for five (5) years obtained from the company. Based on the results of the study, received the forecast value of the Suayap output in 2019 with the best method, namely the Double Exponential Smoothing method. Based on the forecast we got in January at 949181.5 Kg, February at 963505.8 Kg, March at 977830.1 Kg, April at 992154.4 Kg, May at 1006478.6 Kg and June 1020802.9 Kg with MSE value of 47031163817, and RMSE of 216866.7 and parameter values (optimum weighting) for α = 0.616667 and β = 0.1548939

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

22 authors · 35 co-authorship links

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  • Islamic University of Indonesia
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Nahdah Ghina HandayaniIslamic University of Indonesia1
Rinaldi SjahrilAffiliation unknown1
A. Sri Sartika Sufiina AhmadAffiliation unknown1
Herlinda YanasariAffiliation unknown1
Muh. Yunus SuriaAffiliation unknown1
Nur Qadri FebriantiAffiliation unknown1
Nur FaizinAffiliation unknown1
Arum Handini PrimandariAffiliation unknown1
Muhammad BariklanaAffiliation unknown1
Octavia RahmawatiAffiliation unknown1
Nanda Lailatul HumairahAffiliation unknown1
Ashabul Akbar MaulanaAffiliation unknown1
Alfa YulianaAffiliation unknown1
Fitri AmaliaAffiliation unknown1
Nabila Dwi FaziraAffiliation unknown1
Mega Luna SuliztiaAffiliation unknown1
Malecita Nur Atala SinggihAffiliation unknown1
Shazia Ayesha AzzahraAffiliation unknown1
Wiranti Nugrah AndiniAffiliation unknown1
Irwan SutisnaAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Perbandingan Metode Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) Menggunakan Metode Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smothing dan Box Jenkins</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">MAHARANI, IKA MEIZA</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">FAUZAN, ACHMAD</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Double Exponential Smothing</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">One of Indonesia's significant results is oil palm. The reality of this plantation is not only owned by the government (BUMN) but also the private sector. Every period, the company does forecasting in terms of production, especially for the next period. Among them is to set production targets, company operations, and financial planning. Based on this, a study was conducted with the aim to predict the amount of palm kernel oil (PKO) production at PT. Mitra Mendawai Sejati for the next six (6) months. The method used is Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing and Box Jenkins. While the data used is historical data from the amount of palm kernel oil production for five (5) years obtained from the company. Based on the results of the study, received the forecast value of the Suayap output in 2019 with the best method, namely the Double Exponential Smoothing method. Based on the forecast we got in January at 949181.5 Kg, February at 963505.8 Kg, March at 977830.1 Kg, April at 992154.4 Kg, May at 1006478.6 Kg and June 1020802.9 Kg with MSE value of 47031163817, and RMSE of 216866.7 and parameter values (optimum weighting) for α = 0.616667 and β = 0.1548939</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2019-12-19</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
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	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/7795</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/jmsk.v16i2.7795</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 16 No. 2 (2020): JMSK, JANUARY, 2020; 162-173</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/7795/4554</dc:relation>
	<dc:relation>10.20956/j.v16i2.7795.g4554</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2019 Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi</dc:rights>
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