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Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi · Vol. 17 No. 1 (2020) · hlm. 117–128

DOI
10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10236
ISSN
2614-8811, 1858-1382
Terbit
2020-08-24
Penerbit
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Bahasa
en

Abstrak

This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted < 10%.

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19 penulis · 66 tautan kepenulisan bersama · 8 lintas organisasi

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  • State University of Medan
  • Universitas Muhammadiyah Sumatera Utara
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Organisasi berbeda
  • Organisasi sama
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Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Marlina Setia SinagaState University of Medan4
Faridawaty MarpaungState University of Medan3
Rinjani Cyra NabilaState University of Medan2
Amanda FitriaState University of Medan2
Nita SuryaniState University of Medan2
Yulita Molliq RangkutiState University of Medan1
Didi FebrianState University of Medan1
Said IskandarAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Sudianto ManullangState University of Medan1
Fatizanolo BuuloloState University of Medan1
Sri DewiState University of Medan1
Eri WidyastutiState University of Medan1
Hermawan SyahputraState University of Medan1
Agus JunaidiState University of Medan1
Fanny RamadhaniState University of Medan1
M. YaniUniversitas Muhammadiyah Sumatera Utara1
GiaColin Alfaro SamuelState University of Medan1
Zakiy Maulana PulunganState University of Medan1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai, pertama di-harvest 5 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Arnita, Arnita</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Forecasting</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Exponential Smoothing</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Naive Model</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">SARIMA</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) . The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with  and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then  SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE  is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted &amp;lt; 10%.  </dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2020-08-24</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/10236</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10236</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 17 No. 1 (2020): JMSK, SEPTEMBER, 2020; 117-128</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/10236/pdf</dc:relation>
	<dc:relation>10.20956/j.v17i1.10236.g5713</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2020 arnita arnita</dc:rights>
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